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Trade Uncertainty Is Clouding The Income Outlook, Reduces Housing Demand, Says Scotiabank
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Trade Uncertainty Is Clouding The Income Outlook, Reduces Housing Demand, Says Scotiabank
May 26, 2025 9:23 AM

06:54 AM EDT, 05/16/2025 (MT Newswires) -- From March to April, Canada's national housing sales were essentially unchanged while new listings declined, leading to a marginal rise in the sales-to-new listings ratio over this period, said Scotiabank.

Despite the uptick for this indicator in April, market conditions have significantly eased since the beginning of this year, as reflected by the trend decline in this indicator and the rise in the months of inventory almost to its pre-pandemic average, noted the bank.

In April, housing sales weakened in just over 60% of the markets Scotiabank tracks while new listings declined in more than 70% of them. The sales-to-new listings ratio declined in 45% of these markets.

There are now 15 of these markets in buyers' favorable conditions compared with only four last December.

Evidence that housing demand is cooling continues to pile up, stated Scotiabank. This isn't surprising given slower population growth with the revision to immigration targets announced by the federal government last fall and, more importantly, from elevated uncertainty potential buyers are currently facing with regards to their future employment and income conditions with the ongoing trade tensions triggered by the new United States administration.

These tensions are obviously preventing the Canadian housing market to firm up, despite the economy and housing markets likely having completed their adjustment to the rising cycle for interest rates and started reacting to their normalization cycle, added the bank.

Until this trade-related uncertainty wanes with a clearer future path for these tariffs and how they will potentially affect Canada's economy and income conditions for potential buyers, Scotiabank doesn't expect a meaningful recovery in housing demand and prices in Canada.

This elevated context of uncertainty can last for an extended period with uncertain duration, meaning the average potential buyer will likely stay on the sidelines for this unknown duration, acccording to the bank.

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