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APEC forum takes place this week in Peru, then G20 in

Brazil

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Trump win likely to dominate APEC talks

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Swathe of newly elected leaders expected to attend

By Lucinda Elliott

LIMA, Nov 13 (Reuters) - World leaders are heading to

South America for twin summits this month, with one major theme

dominating: Donald Trump 2.0.

Peru is the first stop, for the Asia-Pacific Economic

Cooperation (APEC) forum on Nov. 13-15, followed by a Group of

20 (G20) leading economies meeting in Brazil on Nov. 18-19. A

busy month of global summits has also seen the COP29 climate

change conference in Azerbaijan.

For leaders from the Asia-Pacific region, APEC on Thursday

will be the first time they have gathered since the Nov. 5 U.S.

presidential election, which ended in victory for Republican

Trump, who has pledged sharp policy shifts on issues ranging

from trade tariffs to climate change.

The formal agenda at the forum hosted by resource-rich Peru

includes efforts to finance the energy transition, regulate

emerging technologies, formalize economies and improve maritime

logistics.

But diplomats from the 21-member bloc said Trump's pledge to

erect trade barriers for America's partners would overshadow the

summit. APEC members, from Canada to Thailand, account for

almost half of world trade.

The focus will be "what does Trump 2.0 look like," said a

senior diplomat of an APEC member nation, on condition of

anonymity. Member nations were concerned about Trump's hardline

approach to China, tariffs, and the dollar's rally hitting

global currencies, the diplomat said. The U.S. president-elect

periodically railed against a rising dollar during his first

term, as it hurt the competitiveness of American products

abroad.

Leaders will also be trying to calculate how to navigate

other new relationships following a blockbuster year of

elections in 2024.

There are new leaders of Indonesia, Japan, Mexico and

Vietnam, who are all heading to the Peruvian capital.

"A lot of this will be a get-to-know-you for big leaders,"

said Erin Murphy, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and

International Studies based in Washington. "There's going to be

less of a focus on the APEC agenda, and more on - how are we

going to work together in the new world next year?"

TRADE WAR, CHINA

Trump has proposed import tariffs of 10% across the board on

all goods into the U.S., and even higher levies on imports from

China. Simmering rivalry between Washington and Beijing has

caught many APEC countries in the crossfire in recent years.

Australia, which is looking to diversify trade links across

Southeast Asia, says it will support "free and fair"

multilateral trade at the summit.

Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden is due to travel to Lima,

with Trump's transition team also likely to send

representatives.

Biden's impact will be limited, however, given Trump's

thumping election win, diplomats said.

Any concessions that Biden made would have a question mark

over them when policy could change so "drastically" under Trump,

said one senior diplomat in South America.

Hosts Peru want to revive an old APEC plan to establish

a free trade area for the entire Asia-Pacific, Foreign Minister

Elmer Schialer said, but analysts view that as a long shot

without U.S. support.

Delegates said APEC could lay the runway for future

announcements on the environment, signaling to negotiators at

COP29 and the G20. Trump has already said he plans to withdraw

the U.S. from the landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement,

dampening the outlook for climate deals.

Executives from Exxon Mobil ( XOM ), TikTok and JPMorgan

Chase ( JPM ) are scheduled to address delegates alongside

leaders from 12 countries, including China's President Xi

Jinping.

For President Xi, APEC marks a return to Latin America for

the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. He will also

inaugurate a Chinese-built mega port on the Peruvian coast.

Xi will be on a diplomacy blitz at APEC, several China-based

analysts told Reuters, as he seeks to improve or consolidate

relations with nations like South Korea and Japan who may be

worried about a Trump-led United States.

"This is a good opportunity for Xi to show up, especially

when it seems like things in the U.S. might be unstable," Murphy

said.