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The two leaders to meet on Trump's Scottish golf course

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Trump sees 50-50 chance for EU trade deal

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EU faces tariffs on 70% of exports, including steel and

cars

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Deal could impose 15% tariff, better than 30% threat

(Add comments from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick)

By Andrew Gray and Andrea Shalal

GLASGOW, July 27 (Reuters) - European Commission

President Ursula von der Leyen is set to meet U.S. President

Donald Trump on Sunday to clinch a trade deal for Europe that

would likely see a 15% baseline tariff on most EU goods, but end

months of uncertainty for EU companies.

U.S. and EU negotiators huddled in final talks on tariffs

facing crucial sectors like cars, steel, aluminium and

pharmaceuticals before the meeting, which is expected at 1530

GMT on Trump's golf course in Turnberry, western Scotland.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Commerce

Secretary Howard Lutnick flew to Scotland on Saturday and EU

Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic arrived on Sunday morning.

Lutnick told "Fox News Sunday" that the EU needed to open

its markets for more U.S. exports to convince Trump to reduce a

threatened 30% tariff rate that is due to kick in on August 1.

"The question is, do they offer President Trump a good

enough deal that is worth it for him to step off of the 30%

tariffs that he set," Lutnick said, adding that the EU clearly

wanted - and needed - to reach an agreement.

A separate U.S. administration official was upbeat that a

deal was possible. "We're cautiously optimistic that there will

be a deal reached," the official said, speaking on condition of

anonymity. "But it's not over till it's over."

The EU deal would be a huge prize, given that the U.S. and

EU are each other's largest trading partners by far and account

for a third of global trade.

Ambassadors of EU governments, on a weekend trip to

Greenland organised by the Danish presidency of the EU, held a

teleconference with EU Commission officials on Sunday to agree

on the amount of leeway von der Leyen would have.

In case there is no deal and the U.S. imposes 30% tariffs

from August 1, the EU has prepared counter-tariffs on 93 billion

euros ($109 billion) of U.S. goods.

EU diplomats have said a deal would likely include a broad

15% tariff on EU goods imported into the U.S., mirroring the

U.S.-Japan trade deal, along with a 50% tariff on European steel

and aluminium for which there could be export quotas.

EU officials are hopeful that a 15% baseline tariff would

also apply to cars, replacing the current 27.5% auto tariff.

POSSIBLE EXEMPTIONS

Some expect the 27-nation bloc may be able to secure

exemptions from the 15% baseline tariff for its aerospace

industry and for spirits, though probably not for wine.

The EU could also pledge to buy more liquefied natural gas

from the U.S., a long-standing offer, and boost investment in

the United States.

Trump told reporters there was "not a lot" of wiggle room on

the 50% tariffs that the U.S. has on steel and aluminium

imports, adding, "because if I do it for one, I have to do it

for all."

The U.S. president, in Scotland for a few days of golfing

and bilateral meetings, told reporters upon his arrival on

Friday evening that von der Leyen was a highly respected leader

and he was looking forward to meeting with her.

He said there was a 50-50 chance that the two sides could

reach a framework trade pact, adding that Brussels wanted to

"make a deal very badly".

The EU now faces U.S. tariffs on more than 70% of its

exports, with 50% on steel and aluminium, an extra 25% on cars

and car parts on top of the existing 2.5% and a 10% levy on most

other EU goods. EU officials have said a "no-deal" tariff rate

of 30% would wipe out whole chunks of transatlantic commerce.

A 15% tariff on most EU goods would remove uncertainty but

would be seen by many in Europe as a poor outcome compared to

the initial European ambition of a zero-for-zero tariff deal on

all industrial goods.

Seeking to learn from Japan, which secured a 15% baseline

tariff with the U.S. in a deal earlier this week, EU negotiators

spoke to their Japanese counterparts in preparation for Sunday's

meeting.

For Trump, aiming to reorder the global economy and reduce

decades-old U.S. trade deficits, a deal with the EU would be the

biggest trade agreement, surpassing the $550 billion deal with

Japan.

So far, he has reeled in agreements with Britain, Japan,

Indonesia and Vietnam, although his administration has failed to

deliver on a promise of "90 deals in 90 days."

(Additional reporting by Richard Lough in Paris, Andrea Shalal

in Edinburgh, Andrew Gray and Julia Payne in Brussels, writing

by Jan Strupczewski; Editing by Ros Russell)