08:10 AM EST, 02/25/2025 (MT Newswires) -- President Donald Trump at the start of the week claimed that United States tariffs on Canada and Mexico are moving ahead, noted ING.

The 25% U.S. duties were delayed by one month at the start of February and next Monday is the new deadline to avert a USMCA trade war, said the bank.

ING pointed out it wouldn't be surprised to see Trump raise the tariff threat until the last minute to gain negotiating leverage, like in February.

The bank's working assumption remains that 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada won't materialize and markets are also pricing in only a modest risk of that happening.

ING could see foreign exchange taking the threat more seriously along the week, so USD/CAD and USD/MXN face near-term upside risks.