(In paragraph 8, corrects North American share of global EV
market to 10% from 20%)
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Trump's EV order not seen slowing critical metals demand
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Global EV demand on the rise, especially in China
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Lithium industry executives bullish on growth prospects
By Melanie Burton and Ernest Scheyder
Jan 21 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's
rollback of electric vehicle targets may temporarily slow demand
for lithium and other critical minerals, but is unlikely to
hamper the mining industry amid surging global EV demand,
analysts and industry leaders said.
Trump on Tuesday revoked predecessor Joe Biden's 2021
executive order that sought to ensure half of all new vehicles
sold in the U.S. by 2030 are electric. Automakers had been
positioning for a jump in EV demand due largely to that Biden
move.
Trump's order caused shares of Japanese automakers, South
Korean battery makers and Australian, U.S. and Chinese lithium
miners to slip. But even if EV demand cools in the world's
second-biggest auto market, analysts and industry experts expect
traction elsewhere to more than compensate.
Trump has planned other regulatory changes to cut off
support for EVs and charging stations. He also aims to
strengthen measures blocking imports of automobiles and battery
materials from China.
"Every time people take away subsidies or benefits ... it's
a dent to the demand scenario," said analyst Glyn Lawcock at
Barrenjoey, an Australian investment bank. "(But) ultimately
demand will still grow even if the U.S. is a bit slower under
Trump."
Australian lithium producer Liontown Resources ( LINRF ) said
the global transition to EVs was underway, with or without the
United States.
"Longer term, I just don't think it will be an issue on
demand," Antonino Ottaviano, Liontown's CEO, said on a Tuesday
analyst call.
Much of the EV industry's growth happens in China,
accounting for 11 million sales or 65% of the market, compared
with North America, which accounts for 10% of the market,
Liontown executives said on the call.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world already accounts for 1.3
million EV sales and is growing at 27% year on year, a
trajectory that will see it become more meaningful than the
entire North American market in less than two years, the
Liontown executives added.
That growth potential is something Chinese EV manufacturers
are chasing given they are locked out of the U.S. market due to
100% EV tariffs imposed by Biden.
Grid-scale batteries that store days' worth of electricity
are rising in popularity across the world, for example. Critical
metals are also used to build many consumer electronics as well
as computer servers needed to power the artificial intelligence
industry.
Albemarle, the world's largest lithium company,
declined to comment on Trump's order.
Arcadium, a lithium producer about to be bought by
Rio Tinto and the International Lithium Association
trade group, was not immediately available for comment.
Rio Tinto also declined to comment on Trump's order, but its
CEO Jakob Stausholm told the World Economic Forum on Tuesday
that he is bullish on the white metal.
"Lithium demand will probably go up another five times over
the next 15 years, so a lot more lithium projects will have to
be built," Stausholm told the forum in Davos, Switzerland,
adding that he has owned an EV for more than nine years.
"It's just a better car" than an internal combustion engine,
Stausholm added.
David Klanecky, CEO of privately held battery recycler Cirba
Solutions, expects U.S. demand for critical minerals to jump by
2030 due to the demand not just for EVs, but for myriad
electronics.
Beyond any target rollbacks, miners said they believe
measures to wean Western manufacturers off Chinese supplies will
underpin support for their metals.
"We expect measures taken to build supply chain independence
from China ... to have a much greater impact than the rollback
of a formal target for EV sales," said Darryl Cuzzubbo, CEO of
Australian rare earths developer Arafura.
"There is a tipping point looming for electric vehicles at
which targets and incentives won't be required to encourage
take-up."