*

Analysts expect fourth-quarter profit of $11.4 bln

*

Q4 revenue jumps, beats market expectations

*

Stock price has leapt on chip demand for AI applications

*

Incoming Trump administration an uncertainty for TSMC

*

Earnings call at 0600 GMT on Thursday

TAIPEI, Jan 16 (Reuters) - Taiwan Semiconductor

Manufacturing Co ( TSM ), the main global producer of advanced

chips used in artificial intelligence applications, is expected

to report a 58% leap in fourth-quarter profit on Thursday

because of surging demand.

The world's largest contract chipmaker, whose customers

include Apple ( AAPL ) and Nvidia ( NVDA ), has benefited from

the megatrend towards AI. But the Taiwanese company faces

headwinds from U.S. government technology restrictions on China

and uncertainty about President-elect Donald Trump's incoming

administration, which has threatened broad import tariffs.

The U.S. government said on Monday it would further restrict

AI chip and technology exports, adding to potential issues TSMC

could face, though Taiwan and other close U.S. allies will be

allowed unlimited access to U.S. AI technology.

TSMC is set to report a net profit of T$377.95

billion ($11.44 billion) for the quarter ended Dec. 31,

according to a LSEG SmartEstimate drawn from 22 analysts.

SmartEstimates give greater weighting to forecasts from analysts

who are more consistently accurate.

That estimate compares to the 2023 fourth-quarter net profit

of T$238.7 billion.

TSMC last week reported a jump in fourth-quarter revenue in

Taiwan dollars, comfortably beating market expectations. The

company gives its revenue outlook in U.S. dollars on its

quarterly earnings call, scheduled for 0600 GMT on Thursday.

TSMC is spending billions of dollars on new factories

overseas, including $65 billion on three plants in the U.S.

state of Arizona, though it says most manufacturing will remain

in Taiwan.

TSMC, at its earnings call, will update its outlook for the

current quarter as well as for the full year, including planned

capital expenditure as it races to expand production.

On its last earnings call in October, TSMC said capital

expenditure was likely to be higher in 2025 than last year,

though it did not provide a figure.

On that call, it predicted 2024 capital expenditure as being

slightly higher than $30 billion.

The AI boom has helped drive up the price of shares in

Asia's most valuable company, with TSMC's Taipei-listed stock

soaring 81% last year, compared with a 28.5% gain for the

broader market.

($1 = 33.0390 Taiwan dollars)

(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)