07:13 AM EST, 11/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- It's worth monitoring Canada's budget announcement on Tuesday, said ING.

A mix of fiscally expansionary measures to support a tariff-hit economy is widely expected, wrote the bank in a note.

The bar for debt sustainability concerns to hit the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) is elevated, so bold fiscal spending moves should be positive for CAD as the risks of more Bank of Canada cuts decrease, stated ING.

However, the focus should anyway stay on data, pointed out the bank. If inflation figures undershoot, the case for another cut in early 2026 -- which is ING's baseline -- should be compelling.

On Friday, Canada also releases jobs figures (LFS) for October. All the focus will be on the unemployment rate, where further increases from the current 7.1% should also fuel dovish bets, added the bank.

ING expects USD/CAD to hover around 1.40 for most of November, then turn lower in December as the US dollar (USD) weakens.