10:23 AM EDT, 07/11/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Uber Technologies ( UBER ) and Lyft ( LYFT ) are expected to see unit volume shift to Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) Waymo as autonomous vehicles expand to a greater share of consumers, Wedbush Securities said in a Friday note.

Tesla is seeking to conduct testing of its Robotaxi vehicles in Phoenix, Arizona, for potential deployment, with a decision on the automaker's application expected at the end of July, CNBC reported Thursday, citing a spokesperson for the Arizona Department of Transportation. The EV maker started offering Robotaxi rides in Austin, Texas, last month.

Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk said on the X platform that the Robotaxi will expand to a larger service area in Austin this weekend, while the company is waiting for regulatory approval in California's San Francisco Bay Area, expected in a month or two.

Wedbush expects self-driving vehicles to disrupt the current status quo over time, though any impact on established ride-sharing companies is expected to be limited in the short term. Uber ( UBER ) and Lyft ( LYFT ) will likely face more supply concentration in the future and possibly see unit volume transfer to Tesla and Waymo, Wedbush analysts, including Scott Devitt and Daniel Ives, wrote in the note.

"Success for Tesla and Robotaxi would be most disruptive for Uber ( UBER )/Lyft ( LYFT ), as it will likely walk alone from a distribution standpoint," according to the brokerage report. "We believe higher density markets continue to be the area that autonomous can be most disruptive first."

Waymo, which reportedly launched its robotaxi service in the Phoenix area in 2020, began testing its fleet in New York City and Philadelphia earlier this week, Devitt and Ives said.

Uber Technologies ( UBER ) last month began autonomous ride-hailing in Atlanta, in collaboration with Waymo. That service is also available in Austin. Lyft ( LYFT ) and May Mobility are planning to deploy AVs in Atlanta this year.

The brokerage estimates that about 40% of Uber's ( UBER ) mobility gross bookings and a similar proportion of Lyft's ( LYFT ) core business are most exposed to potential risk from AVs.

Wedbush has a neutral rating on Uber ( UBER ) with a 12-month price target of $85.

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