08:28 AM EDT, 09/23/2025 (MT Newswires) -- EUR/GBP has traded in a tight range since the last update from UBS.

While the bank doesn't see this changing overall, UBS forecasts the pair to move slightly higher over time.

Last month saw fiscal and political risks in France plotted against those in the United Kingdom. The bank believes that the upcoming U.K. Fall Budget has more potential to derail sterling (GBP) than the situation in France has over the euro (EUR).

However, any EUR/GBP spot upside is likely to be offset by negative carry, resulting in a neutral total return outlook for the time being, stated UBS.

U.K. fiscal risks overshadowed Swiss growth fears due to U.S. tariffs. As a consequence, GBP/CHF has retraced from its August highs and is now trading at the lower end of its medium-term trading range.

Sterling's carry advantage should persist for the time being, especially after the latest inflation data and Bank of England meeting. This should support total returns for GBP/CHF into positive territory.

On a spot basis, however, UBS thinks GBP/EUR will be rangebound around the 1.07-1.08 levels in the upcoming months.