12:29 PM EDT, 07/15/2024 (MT Newswires) -- UBS on Monday issued its outlook for sector-quarter oil-sands production from Canadian Natural Resources ( CNQ ) , Suncor Energy ( SU ) and Imperial Oil ( IMO )
"One positive for refiners is WCS (Western Canada Select) diffs has widened from $11/bbl early June to $15.80/bbl, despite TMX startup and peak upstream turnaround season. This has also happened with PADD 2 utilization remains highly elevated. PADD 5 gasoline imports remain elevated (utilization has averaged 96% since mid May). For CNQ, we are modeling total volumes to be down 5.6% vs. the last quarter. For IMO, we expect upstream volumes to be down 6.4% QoQ due to planned downtime. SU has planned downtime at Base Plant (60mb/d impact on 2Q24 volumes), Fort Hills (25mb/d) and Syncrude (65mb/d). CNQ, IMO and SU will be running much harder in 2H 24, diffs could stay elevated or even widen from current levels as apportionment are expected to rise, the investment bank noted.
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