02:39 PM EDT, 10/06/2025 (MT Newswires) -- UBS thinks the third-quarter was another quarter of easing competition among Canadian telcos, with price increases in broadband/wireless and more measured promotional activity.

"We estimate industry phone (postpaid & prepaid) growth slowed to 2.9% vs. 3.5% in 2Q and ~5% this time last year due to 10%+ lower loadings amid sustained immigration headwinds."

UBS expects APRU declines to continue as lower roaming revenues weigh on trends but the brokerage is looking for gradual improvement next year as recent price increases take hold. UBS expects similar dynamics in wireline with moderating broadband subscriber growth and solid pricing.

For Rogers Communications (Buy; C$63 PT), UBS believes the company is tracking to the high-end of annual guidance for 3%-5% service revenue growth while tracking to the low-end of 0%-3% EBITDA growth. With the closing of MLSE, UBS expects leverage to fall to 3.9x (vs. 4.5x at YE24).

In wireless, UBS is looking for lower loadings and lower churn, supporting 62K postpaid phone adds (vs. +101K a yr ago). Expecting ARPU declines to remain similar to trend at 3.1% as recent price increases are offset by roaming and wholesale headwinds.

Media revenue growth is forecast at 15% (~6% excluding MLSE) while seasonal pressure at MLSE drives EBITDA to $63 million for 8.4% margins. Going forward, the Media segment will be cyclically stronger in Q4/Q1 (possibly Q2 depending on basketball/hockey playoffs). Q3 will be the softest quarter as EBITDA dilution in MLSE will weigh on results.

BCE (Neutral; C$32 PT) -- UBS is trimming third-quarter estimates for BCE's Media segment, but long-term estimates are largely unchanged. "We believe BCE is on track for its revised 2025 guidance for 0-2% revenue/EBITDA growth (incl. Ziply)."

Looking for 1.5% revenue and stable EBITDA in the third quarter, or ~1% revenue and 3% EBITDA declines ex a partial quarter benefit of Ziply. UBS believes management's Oct. 14 analyst day will focus on its consumer strategy in Canada, fiber opportunity in the U.S., Media and Enterprise.

In wireless, UBS expects postpaid phone adds to moderate to 20K vs. 33K a year ago as gross adds decline 7% vs. -15% in the second quarter and churn improves UBSe 14bps y/y, similar to last quarter's improvement. Along with 1.8% ARPU declines, UBS is forecasting 0.9% wireless service revenue decline vs. -0.3% in the second quarter.

In wireline, UBS is looking for a 2.0% decline in wireline service revenues, in-line with trend. The analyst is expecting 3% revenue decline in media, amid a softer ad environment while EBITDA falls 13% y/y.

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