financetom
Business
financetom
/
Business
/
Unwind of $500 billion yen-funded carry trade only 50% done, UBS says
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Unwind of $500 billion yen-funded carry trade only 50% done, UBS says
Aug 6, 2024 7:06 AM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - An epic unwinding of the yen-funded carry trade that has reverberated through global markets is only about 50% done, a UBS analyst estimated on Tuesday.

Days of havoc in global markets have analysts rushing to calculate the size of a global carry trade in which investors have borrowed money from economies with low interest rates, such as Japan or Switzerland, to fund investments in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.

The strategy, which kept money flowing into global risk assets for years, was shaken after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates last week, forcing some investors to abandon the trade as the yen surged higher. The resulting unwind sparked huge losses in global stock markets and saw Japan's Nikkei notch its worst day since 1987.

James Malcolm, a UBS Japan macro strategist based in London, estimates that the dollar-yen carry trade grew to at least $500 billion at its peak and is not done unwinding.

"I'd guess the carry trade is only about 50% unwound," he wrote in a Tuesday note to clients.

Malcolm calculates that about $200 billion of the carry trade has been unwound over the last two to three weeks.

"How much the carry trade could unwind depends not so much on the level of the interest rate differential but the change in the interest rate differential," he said.

Malcolm estimates there is still some $300 billion of the trade left to unwind.

"Comparing this unwind with 1998 (dollar-yen) carry trade unwind suggest more unwinds to come."

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Natera Says Prospera Lung Test Gets Medicare Coverage for Single Lung Transplant Patients
Natera Says Prospera Lung Test Gets Medicare Coverage for Single Lung Transplant Patients
Nov 27, 2024
09:47 AM EST, 11/27/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Natera ( NTRA ) said Wednesday its Prospera Lung test has obtained coverage from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for single lung transplant recipients in the surveillance setting. The company said the Prospera Lung test first obtained Medicare coverage for double-lung transplant patients in 2023. Price: 167.98, Change: -0.34, Percent Change:...
Update: Market Chatter: Germany's IG Metall Union Criticizes Ford's Job Cut Plans in Cologne
Update: Market Chatter: Germany's IG Metall Union Criticizes Ford's Job Cut Plans in Cologne
Nov 27, 2024
09:49 AM EST, 11/27/2024 (MT Newswires) -- (Updates with comment from Ford in the fourth paragraph.) Germany's IG Metall union criticized Ford's (F) plans to cut thousands of jobs, warning it could lead to an incremental death of the automaker's Cologne plant, Reuters reported Wednesday. The report said that the union representatives pledged to support workers' protests against the restructuring....
Stellantis to halt auto production at Italy's Mirafiori plant in December
Stellantis to halt auto production at Italy's Mirafiori plant in December
Nov 27, 2024
MILANO, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Stellantis ( STLA ) will halt again auto assembly operations at its Mirafiori plant in Italy, which makes the electric Fiat 500 and two Maserati sport car models, from Dec. 2 to Jan. 5, the automaker said on Wednesday. The reason is the continuing uncertainty in sales of electric cars in several European markets, which...
Stellantis to halt auto production at Italy's Mirafiori plant in December
Stellantis to halt auto production at Italy's Mirafiori plant in December
Nov 27, 2024
MILANO (Reuters) - Stellantis will halt again auto assembly operations at its Mirafiori plant in Italy, which makes the electric Fiat 500 and two Maserati sport car models, from Dec. 2 to Jan. 5, the automaker said on Wednesday. The reason is the continuing uncertainty in sales of electric cars in several European markets, which account for 97% of Mirafiori's...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved