NEW YORK, Aug 6 (Reuters) - An epic unwinding of the
yen-funded carry trade that has reverberated through global
markets is only about 50% done, a UBS analyst estimated on
Tuesday.
Days of havoc in global markets have analysts rushing to
calculate the size of a global carry trade in which investors
have borrowed money from economies with low interest rates, such
as Japan or Switzerland, to fund investments in higher-yielding
assets elsewhere.
The strategy, which kept money flowing into global risk
assets for years, was shaken after the Bank of Japan raised
interest rates last week, forcing some investors to abandon the
trade as the yen surged higher. The resulting unwind sparked
huge losses in global stock markets and saw Japan's Nikkei notch
its worst day since 1987.
James Malcolm, a UBS Japan macro strategist based in London,
estimates that the dollar-yen carry trade grew to at least $500
billion at its peak and is not done unwinding.
"I'd guess the carry trade is only about 50% unwound," he
wrote in a Tuesday note to clients.
Malcolm calculates that about $200 billion of the carry
trade has been unwound over the last two to three weeks.
"How much the carry trade could unwind depends not so much
on the level of the interest rate differential but the change in
the interest rate differential," he said.
Malcolm estimates there is still some $300 billion of the
trade left to unwind.
"Comparing this unwind with 1998 (dollar-yen) carry trade
unwind suggest more unwinds to come."