NEW YORK, Aug 6 (Reuters) -
An epic unwinding of the
yen-funded carry trade
that has reverberated through global markets may have
further to go, analysts said on Tuesday.
Days of havoc in global markets have analysts rushing to
calculate the size of a global carry trade in which investors
have borrowed money from economies with low interest rates, such
as Japan or Switzerland, to fund investments in higher-yielding
assets elsewhere.
The strategy, which kept money flowing into global risk
assets for years, was shaken after the Bank of Japan raised
interest rates last week, forcing some investors to abandon the
trade as the yen surged higher. The resulting unwind sparked
huge losses in global stock markets and saw Japan's Nikkei notch
its worst day since 1987.
"I'd guess the carry trade is only about 50% unwound," wrote
James Malcolm, a UBS Japan macro strategist based in London, in
a Tuesday note to clients.
Malcolm estimates the dollar-yen carry trade grew to at
least $500 billion at its peak. He calculated that some $200
billion of the carry trade has been unwound over the last two to
three weeks.
"How much the carry trade could unwind depends not so
much on the level of the interest rate differential but the
change in the interest rate differential," he said. Comparing
the current move with the carry trade unwind of 1998 suggests
more unwinds could be ahead, he said.
Shaun Osborne of Scotiabank echoed that sentiment,
noting that two gauges of the carry trade - the Bloomberg G10
Carry Index and the Bloomberg GSAM FX Carry Index - had shed
around 5%, only half of what they lost in three notable carry
trade unwinds in the past.
"The adjustment in carry positioning over the past few
weeks has been rapid but it may have further to run," he said in
a Tuesday note.
Hedge funds and other speculative investors, whose
positioning is captured in a weekly report by the Commodity
Futures Trading Commission, have only reduced their short yen
positions by about 50%, Osborne said. The latest report was
released last week.
The report "is a small window on FX positioning but the
data along with the (so far) relatively limited correction in
carry trade index returns suggest that there is more room for
the carry trade to unwind in the short run," he said. "That
would suggest more volatility in risk assets ahead and more
strength in the JPY ahead."