08:06 AM EST, 11/05/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release its international merchandise trade for September at 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The bank noted that the merchandise trade deficit looks to widen to C$1.5 billion in September from C$1.1 billion, extending a string of six monthly shortfalls. Lower energy prices will continue to weigh on energy exports, while a negative manufacturing flash suggests imports and non-energy exports will fall.

These figures have a higher-than-normal degree of uncertainty given the impacts of Hurricane Helene and port strikes -- albeit short-lived -- on both sides of the border, pointed out BMO.

At 9:30 a.m. ET Tuesday, the S&P Global services PMI for October will be released.

Then at 1:30 p.m. ET the Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada's Oct. 23 policy meeting -- which saw policymakers kick things up a notch with a 50bsp rate cut, following three 25bps moves -- will be scoured for further insight into what drove the BoC to be more aggressive and what it would take to see another like-sized cut, added BMO.

Governor Tiff Macklem continues to state that we're "not close" to the maximum rate divergence between Canada and the United States, so markets will be looking for any hints on where the BoC believes that could be. Finally, the bank advised to watch for any discussion on the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) and potential US presidential election outcomes. So far, Macklem has noted that the loonie isn't a factor for policy.

The loonie is firmer (CAD per USD -0.15%) after strengthening on Monday, according to the bank. The US dollar (USD) is weaker (BBDXY -0.15%) after slipping Monday