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Update On Barrick Gold Market Chatter: National Bank Says Mali Arrest Warrant Reports "Continues to Put An Overhang On the Stock"
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Update On Barrick Gold Market Chatter: National Bank Says Mali Arrest Warrant Reports "Continues to Put An Overhang On the Stock"
Dec 5, 2024 11:48 AM

02:28 PM EST, 12/05/2024 (MT Newswires) -- (Adding National Bank commentary from the fifth paragraph; updates shares.)

Barrick Gold ( GOLD ) chief executive Mark Bristow faces a warrant for his arrest in Mali as the company's legal issues in the West African country continue to run hot, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday.

Citing people familiar with the matter, the report said warrants have been issued for Bristow and Abbas Coulibaly, the general manager of the company's Loulo-Gounkoto complex in the country.

The warrants follow on the arrest of four Barrick employees from the complex in November on charges the company refutes, as Mali's government seeks an improved deal on its share of profits from Loulo-Gounkoto, which is expected to produce up to 560,000 ounces of gold this year, according to company guidance.

Bloomberg said Mali has not made its demands public, but noted Barrick has offered US$370 million to settle a tax claim arising from a government audit. The country's military junta has threatened to suspend the company's Loulo concession when it license expires in 2026.

For its part, National Bank noted that Barrick previously reported it agreed to find a global resolution of the existing claims and disputes between the government and the Loulo-Gounkoto complex, although details of the settlement were not given at the time. Given the ongoing negotiations, National previously updated its estimates at Loulo-Gounkoto to be more conservative with its Q3 2024 earnings revision note and now assumes Barrick will have its equity ownership in the mine reduced to 75% (currently 80% ABX/20% Government) in Q3 2025 along with an assumed increase in royalty rates, which increases the government's share of economic benefits from the mine (including taxes and royalties) to near 50%. National Bank currently values Loulo-Gounkoto (8%DR) at C$2.60 per share, which makes up near 9% of its overall net asset value (NAV) for Barrick, with the complex representing near 14% and 13% of National's company wide production estimates in 2024 and 2025 respectively.

"In our view," National Bank said, "today's news continues to put an overhang on the stock with respect to the ongoing negotiations and any potential changes to the tax/equity interests in the complex going forward. As we have been tracking the situation in Mali, we note that the Government of Mali has taken an aggressive approach towards negotiations with mining companies in the country, which gives us further conviction in our Sector Perform rating. We continue to see the potential to become more positive on the name as Barrick works through some near-term challenges (NGM cost control and execution on guidance, PV ramp-up challenges and Loulo-Gounkoto negotiations), and we get closer to the operational upside from the internal project pipeline."

National Bank has a sector-perform rating and C$27.00 price target on Barrick.

Barrick shares were last seen down $0.71 or 2.9% to $23.73 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Price: 23.78, Change: -0.67, Percent Change: -2.74

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