12:06 PM EDT, 10/20/2025 (MT Newswires) -- US box office is poised for a rebound in the final quarter of 2025 after the lack of a blockbuster movie drove a disappointing third quarter, B. Riley Securities said in a note e-mailed Monday.

The brokerage said it is now projecting fourth-quarter domestic box office collections of $2.59 billion, about $10 million lower than its prior estimate and $100 million below consensus, but still indicating double-digit annual growth. It estimates third-quarter domestic ticket sales to have dropped 11% year over year to $2.37 billion.

The fourth-quarter projection takes into account a weaker start for Walt Disney's ( DIS ) "Tron: Ares" science fiction action film released earlier this month and a "solid line-up" for November, B. Riley analyst Drew Crum wrote in the note. The outlook also factors in expectations that the December release of the "Avatar: Fire and Ash" movie will underpin a strong finish to the year.

Still, the brokerage tempered its estimates for this year and the next.

Crum estimates total domestic ticket sales to grow 6% year over year to $9.06 billion in 2025, down from his prior forecast of $9.07 billion.

For next year, the brokerage is projecting $9.55 billion in box office proceeds, implying 5% growth but a downgrade from its previous estimate of $9.69 billion. The outlook reflects "a limited calendar for (the first quarter), a tough April-May comp, and potential slate congestion in December with 'Avengers: Doomsday' and 'Dune: Part Three' both releasing on the same day," Crum said.

Imax ( IMAX ) and Marcus (MCS) are still B. Riley's "top picks" among five movie theater stocks that it covers, both with a buy recommendation. The brokerage has a neutral rating on AMC Entertainment ( AMC ) , Cinemark (CNK) and National CineMedia ( NCMI ) .

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