HOUSTON, April 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. has doubled the
pace of cutting carbon emissions since President Joe Biden's
Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) passed in 2022, analysts and
scientists said, with more than 80 solar, wind and energy
storage projects taking advantage of the law's mix of direct
payments and tax credits.
The IRA and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law last year
provided $239 billion for clean energy, electric vehicles (EVs),
electrification of buildings, and carbon management in the U.S.,
up 38% from 2022, according to the Clean Investment Monitor, a
joint project of the policy researcher Rhodium Group and MIT.
Still, experts said there is a long way to go before the law can
achieve Biden's wider climate ambitions of net-zero by 2050.
Ultimately, analysts expect U.S. government direct spending
and tax credits under the law will far exceed the initial $400
billion estimate. Goldman Sachs Group ( GS ) has projected up to $1.2
trillion spending through 2031.
Two years after passage of the landmark climate law, early
winners have been sectors such as electrical power, battery
manufacturing and traditional clean energies like wind and
solar. The law encouraged Asian and European companies to invest
more in the U.S., which in turn prompted Europe to develop its
own Green Industrial Plan over worries the U.S. would pull away
clean-energy projects and talent.
Still, state and local regulations have hindered development
of new transmission lines, and new EV charging stations have not
sprouted up as quickly as some had hoped. Also, the IRA has been
much slower to encourage other types of projects, especially
hydrogen, carbon sequestration, geothermal and nuclear energy,
noted Jigar Shah, head of the loan programs office at the
Department of Energy.
Those sectors "continue to struggle around figuring out how
exactly to put all the pieces together," Shah said last month at
the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston.
Oil companies have bristled at the criteria for tax credits
for hydrogen fuel plants. Exxon Mobil Corp ( XOM ) Chief
Executive Darren Woods warned in an interview that he might
scrap a multibillion-dollar plan to build the world's largest
hydrogen plant in Texas.
"The challenge has been translating the legislation of the
IRA into regulation," Woods said, noting the proposed regulation
favors hydrogen fuel from plants powered by renewable energy
rather than natural gas.
Even in sectors like electric vehicles, companies are
discovering "a host of practical barriers to putting the IRA tax
breaks to work", said Jason Bordoff, founding director of the
Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University.
For instance, he cited a lack of transmission lines that
would connect new clean energy projects to the grid and
local-content requirements for EVs.
Tax breaks for EV purchases under the law have U.S.
automakers worried about cheap Chinese vehicles flooding the
market, triggering rules for U.S. content and calls in
Washington for steeper tariffs. China has protested U.S. content
rules on EVs to the World Trade Organization.
Concern about Asian companies cornering the market on
advanced technology needed for EVs and other green energy items
also prompted Washington to launch aggressive investments in
semiconductor plants.
"Some parts of clean energy like electric vehicles have
become particularly politicized. There could be a risk that the
implementation of the IRA by the administration could be slowed
down," Bordoff said.
So far, a $7.5 billion U.S.-funded network of electric
vehicle charging stations has led to only a handful of stations
despite a temporary waiver of U.S. content rules.
Regulatory hurdles have hindered advancement of complex
projects favored by oil companies such as hydrogen plants or
carbon capture systems for oil wells, noted Roman Kramarchuk,
head of climate markets and policy analytics for S&P Global
Commodity Insights.
He predicted these projects would see a second wave of
development "when there is more certainty around how that
financing is supposed to happen or what it takes to get a deal
done."
Oil executives at the conference in Houston also complained
that regulations were making it difficult to build new natural
gas pipelines, which undercut efforts to remove the gas from
drilling sites.
Now, a proposed IRA-linked fee for excess methane emissions
on federal lands has raised a new hurdle, ConocoPhillips ( COP )
Chief Executive Ryan Lance said, adding that "industry is
pushing back" on that issue.
Despite the various industry complaints, the climate law has
helped the U.S. reduce carbon emissions by 4% annually, double
the pace of 2% a year before the law, nine research teams across
the U.S. said last year in an article published in the journal
Science. Still, some experts said the pace must accelerate.
"The IRA doubles the pace of reductions but should have
tripled it to hit our 2030 climate goals and get on the path to
net-zero by 2050," said Princeton Mechanical and Aerospace
Engineering professor Jesse Jenkins, one of the study
participants.