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US ethane exports to China to drop 24% in 2025, 51% in

2026

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US output of ethane to fall 4% in 2025, 12 % in 2026

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At least 9 ethane tankers stalled or drifting along U.S.

Gulf

Coast

By Arathy Somasekhar

HOUSTON, June 10 (Reuters) - U.S. ethane exports will

fall by 24% in 2025, while production of the shale gas will

decline by 4%, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said

on Tuesday, after Washington requested U.S. exporters seek

licenses to ship ethane to top buyer China.

Around half of all U.S. ethane exports head to China, and the

license requirement has already impacted exports and raised

questions about extracting ethane from natural gas versus

leaving it in the stream.

U.S. ethane exports will fall to 410,000 barrels per day in

2025 from a previous forecast of 540,000 bpd, the EIA said,

adding that output would fall to 2.8 million bpd from 2.9

million bpd estimated previously.

Exports would fall by 51% to 310,000 bpd in 2026, while

output would fall by 12% to 2.7 million bpd, the government's

statistical arm said.

"We reduced our forecast for U.S. ethane production for both

2025 and 2026 because we expect that without an outlet for

exports, ethane will not be separated from the natural gas

stream," EIA wrote in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Ethane is separated from natural gas, a process called

ethane recovery, when prices for it are higher than prices for

natural gas and it is profitable to do so.

Almost all the ethane currently exported to China can be

left in the gas stream if the export challenges continue,

analysts have said, boosting natural gas volumes and reducing

ethane output.

Energy Transfer ( ET ) and Enterprise Products Partners ( EPD ),

two of the top U.S. ethane producers and exporters, said that

they have received letters from the U.S. Commerce Department

requiring the companies to apply for a license to ship ethane to

China.

Enterprise said it also received a notice from the U.S.

government of its intent to deny emergency requests for three

proposed export cargoes of ethane totaling around 2.2 million

barrels to China.

At least nine vessels, originally expected to load ethane

and set sail for China, were stalled or drifting along the U.S.

Gulf Coast on Tuesday, according to ship-tracking data.