CHICAGO, June 17 (Reuters) - South Dakota farmer Eric
Kroupa received a flurry of calls from grain dealers and ethanol
plants asking to buy the corn locked away in his bins when
prices neared 4-1/2-month peaks last month.
He sold some, but is waiting for buyers to up their bids to
sell more. Prices have since eased and are hovering just above
three-year lows posted in February.
"There's a lot of corn out there but it's sitting in the
farmers' bins and not the end-users' hands," Kroupa said.
After stockpiling crops for much of this season due to low
prices, many farmers in the world's largest corn-producing
nation continue to shun buyers despite few signs that prices
will improve. Grain supplies are ample and early ratings of
summer crops are the best in years.
A larger-than-normal volume of grain remains unsold,
according to Reuters interviews with 15 grain farmers across the
U.S. Midwest. By September 2025, U.S. corn inventories are
expected to reach a six-year high, according to the U.S
Agriculture Department.
Uncertainty around if and when farmers will liquidate their
stocks could make for choppy grain prices, both in cash and
futures markets.
Farmers risk waiting too long to sell as a flood of newly
harvested grain is likely to drag down prices this October and
November. Buyers, aware the harvest is coming, still need enough
supplies to keep processing plants running and exports flowing
this summer.
An economic stare-down between growers and grain buyers is
taking shape, said Angie Setzer, a partner at Michigan-based
Consus Ag.
"I've never seen anything like it in my life. No one's
engaged, not the farmer and not the consumer," Setzer said.
Many growers sold just enough this spring to cover
short-term cash-flow needs, Setzer said. Some are counting on
adverse weather this summer to trigger price rallies, though
nothing is guaranteed.
Three farmers told Reuters they convinced seed and chemical
suppliers to reduce late fees, allowing them to hang on to their
crop. Others, including Kroupa, use the futures market to hedge
the risk of further price declines.
Meanwhile, commercial buyers are banking on lower prices
this summer due to the grain glut, analysts said.
USDA will offer an update of how much corn sits on farms in
a quarterly stocks report on June 28.
U.S. corn supplies stored at the farm level stood at just
over 5 billion bushels as of March 1, the second-highest on-farm
stocks on record for that date, according to USDA. On-farm
stocks represented 60.85% of the entire U.S. corn supply, the
largest share since 2005.
Some buyers are trying to pry grain away from farmers by
offering premiums for immediate supplies to fill near-term
needs, but are lowering prices once those orders are filled.
Archer-Daniels-Midland ( ADM ) on Friday offered farmers a
7-cent-per-bushel premium for corn delivered to its Decatur,
Illinois, processing plant by Sunday versus later in the month.
At ADM's Cedar Rapids, Iowa, plant, that premium is 15 cents.
Such offers of a few extra pennies per bushel can amount to
thousands of dollars per grain transaction.
Indiana crop and cattle producer Samuel Ebenkamp emptied one
corn bin with sales during an early-May rally, but opted to hold
the rest. He'll sell more if prices rally again, but he's
holding tight to ensure his cattle feed needs are covered until
the fall harvest.
His neighbors are making similar financial calculations, he
said.
"There is an insane amount of on-farm storage here,"
Ebenkamp said. "It doesn't appear anyone's in a rush to sell."
Farmers are still holding a larger-than-normal amount of
their last harvest while demand for corn has been fairly solid,
analysts said.
"Ethanol margins are still relatively good. Feed margins are
good. So there is demand out there. And as you look at the
export sector, it's going to be improving," said Dan Basse,
president of Chicago-based consultancy AgResource Co.
How they fill that demand this summer is unclear, Basse
said. "They are short-bought and the farmer is still long. Who
is going to blink first?"
(Editing by Caroline Stauffer and Rod Nickel)