April 9 (Reuters) - Imports into the U.S. could be down

at least 20% year-over-year in the second half of 2025 due to

U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on several trade

partners, a forecast by the National Retail Federation showed on

Wednesday.

With Trump's reciprocal tariffs coming into effect on

Wednesday, along with additional tariffs on China, imports are

expected to drop dramatically beginning next month, according to

the forecast based on data collated by research firm Hackett

Associates for the U.S. trade body.

"Retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country

for months in attempts to mitigate against rising tariffs, but

that opportunity has come to an end with the imposition of the

'reciprocal' tariffs," said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president

for supply chain and customs policy.

The current forecast would bring the first half of 2025 to

11.73 million 20-foot container units (TEU), down 2.9% year over

year. The trade body had previously forecast imports to rise

5.7% in the first half prior to the April tariff announcement.

Trump's reciprocal tariffs included a new baseline 10% U.S.

tariff on goods from all countries and higher reciprocal tariff

rates for countries that his administration says have high

barriers to U.S. imports.

As a result, retailers from Nike ( NKE ) to Best Buy ( BBY )

are likely to be forced to raise prices as Trump's eye-watering

tariffs hit key manufacturing hubs including China, Vietnam and

Indonesia.

The tariffs, including Trump 104% tariffs on China as well

as a retaliatory 84% duty on U.S. imports from Beijing, rattled

global markets on Wednesday, unleashing a selloff in U.S. assets

amid fears of a global recession.

Based on expectations for a dramatic decline in the

second half of the year, total 2025 cargo volume could post a

net decline of 15% or more unless the situation changes, the

report added.

"At this point, retailers are expected to pull back and rely

on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will

happen next," Gold said.