(Reuters) -U.S. total new vehicle sales are expected to rise 2.5% to 1.25 million units on an adjusted basis for the month of June, J.D. Power and GlobalData said in a joint report on Wednesday.

However, same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to a decrease of 5.4% from 2024, the industry consultants added.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

Several buyers made purchases in March and April due to concerns about President Donald Trump's tariffs driving prices higher in the future. This early boost in sales reversed into a payback effect and dragged numbers down in June.

Moreover, a cyber attack-led outage in June last year, which reduced retail sales by approximately 85,000 vehicles, impacted year-over-year comparisons.

This means the year-over-year sales results appear considerably more favorable than they actually are, the report said.

BY THE NUMBERS

The average new-vehicle retail transaction price for June is expected to reach $46,233, up 3.1% from a year ago, but an increase of only 0.2% sequentially.

Current tariff levels on average add around $4,275 to manufacturers' costs per vehicle, though the impact may vary based on location of production.

Manufacturers, who are grappling with tariff costs, have scaled back incentive spending from 6.1% of suggested retail price in January to 5% in June.

KEY QUOTE

"This (falling incentive) reflects the cost-pressure tariffs are creating for manufacturers, but it is also causing some shoppers looking for affordable vehicles to remain on the sidelines," said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.

WHAT'S NEXT

Sales in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to reach 4.18 million units, up 2.5% from a year ago.

Year-over-year metrics for July 2025 sales will provide little clarity as sales during the same period a year earlier were boosted by a rebound after the dealer software outages, the consultants said.