(Reuters) - U.S. new vehicle retail sales are expected to rise 8.1% to 1.01 million units in February on an adjusted basis, industry consultants J.D. Power and GlobalData said in a joint report on Thursday.

However, the rise in sales is not enough to offset the decline in total profit per unit for retailers, which is projected to be down 11.8% from February 2024.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

Despite discounts from manufacturers and higher sales volumes, rising dealer inventories and increased competition have pressured profitability for retailers.

KEY QUOTE

"Vehicle affordability remains a challenge for the industry and is the primary reason why the sales pace, while strengthening, has not returned to pre-pandemic levels," said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.

BY THE NUMBERS

The average retail transaction price for new vehicles has been high and is trending toward $44,619, up $71 from February 2024.

The average incentive spend per vehicle is expected to grow 22.8% from a year ago.

Total new-vehicle sales for February 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1.24 million, a 3.5% increase from a year earlier. WHAT'S NEXT

The trend of rising sales driven by increased discounts is expected to continue into March and beyond, the report said.

The report added that factors such as changes to electric vehicle tax credits, fuel economy regulations and import tariffs could also affect the market going ahead.