HOUSTON/DENVER, May 31 (Reuters) - U.S. oil drillers are

sticking to pledges to temper spending on boosting output,

keeping the world's top crude producer on course for slower

growth in 2024 in what may ease pressure on OPEC+ to make

further supply cuts this weekend.

The U.S. has driven growth in global oil supply from

non-OPEC producers over much of the past decade due to the shale

revolution and breakthroughs in technology and efficiency that

have boosted output.

Last year, U.S. crude output surprised to the upside,

growing over a million barrels per day to 12.93 million bpd and

well over the roughly 400,000 bpd the government predicted at

the start of 2023.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and

allied producers in the group known as OPEC+ deepened supply

cuts last year in part to compensate for rising output from the

U.S. and other non-OPEC producers. Total OPEC+ cuts stand at

5.86 million bpd, equal to about 5.7% of global demand.

OPEC+ is working on a complex deal that will allow the group

to extend some of these cuts into 2025, three sources familiar

with OPEC+ discussions said on Thursday.

As OPEC+ meets on Sunday to consider supply policy, U.S.

production increases continue to drive gains in non-OPEC+ output

but will present less of a threat than they did in 2023.

The government's latest forecast is for U.S. crude supply to

rise by about 270,000 bpd this year. That is similar to OPEC's

own forecast for U.S. crude and condensate output to grow by

300,000 bpd.

The International Energy Agency expects higher U.S. output

growth of 640,000 bpd. The three are the most closely watched

forecasters, and all were well below last year's figure.

OPEC expects global demand growth of 2.2 million bpd to

outstrip supply growth from oil producers outside the OPEC+

group by about one million bpd in 2024. That would imply that

demand for OPEC+ crude should be around 900,000 bpd more than in

2023, the group said in its May monthly oil market report.

The IEA expects a much lower global demand growth of 1.1

million bpd and little change in demand for OPEC crude.

LITTLE CHANGE SO FAR

Overall U.S. crude output has changed little so far this

year. Output in April was around 13.13 million bpd, down from

13.26 million bpd in December.

U.S. producers seem unlikely to surprise to the upside in

the way they did in 2023, even as oil prices hover close

to $80 a barrel, industry executives and analysts said.

"Our customers are remaining very conservative and

disciplined," said Paul Mosvold, chief operating officer at

contract driller Scandrill.

"It's been surprising that the rig count hasn't ticked up

more given current prices."

His company is keeping capital spending flat and holding off

upgrades to its rigs to best align with a flatter drilling

growth. It plans to operate 12 rigs by year-end and re-deploy a

few more next year.

The U.S. oil rig count has fallen to 496, down 13% from

year-ago levels, according to data from Baker Hughes.

"The U.S. has the ability to grow at 1 million bpd for a

number of years, but there is presently no desire to grow at

that rate," S&P analysts said in a note on Thursday.

S&P Global Commodity Insights expects an increase of 470,000

bpd in U.S. crude oil and condensate production this year.

DISCIPLINED GROWTH

Publicly traded U.S. producers have limited spending on

growth in recent years, under pressure from investors after

unbridled spending drove breakneck growth but limited returns

from the shale sector in the 2010s.

Higher-than-expected output increases in recent years have

been driven in part by private producers, some of which are now

being swept up in a wave of consolidation hitting the sector.

They have increased productivity by drilling longer wells and

fracturing the rock to produce oil from more wells at the same

time.

"I expect that despite the recent wave of consolidations, we

will see current oil prices continue and help support moderate

gains in overall U.S. oil production growth as constant

improvement in drilling and completion efficiencies continues,"

said Timothy Roberson, president of Texas Standard Oil.

Oilfield service firms, like SLB, are forecasting

more growth from international markets this year rather than

North America. Its first quarter international revenues grew 18%

this year, while North American revenues were down 6%, in part

due to consolidation.

"There has been a shift in strategy in recent years, with a

stronger focus on capital discipline, resulting in a different

reaction," said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS bank, who

thinks OPEC+ will extend its voluntary cuts.

Still, the U.S., along with Canada, Brazil and Guyana, are

anticipated to lead oil and liquids production growth this year.

Petroleum liquids production from OPEC+ is anticipated to

decline by 1 million bpd this year, while non-members' supply

will grow by 1.4 million bpd, the EIA said in March.

"OPEC+ has learnt to live with U.S. oil production growth",

UBS' Staunovo said.