HOUSTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Growth in oil output from the

U.S. Permian basin, the country's top oilfield, is expected to

slow by at least 25% this year despite President Donald Trump's

vow to maximize production, energy executives forecast on

Thursday.

At a conference in Houston, they said production is expected

to rise in 2025 by about 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) to

300,000 bpd from the shale formation spread across Texas and New

Mexico, down from last year's 380,000-bpd increase.

That forecast aligns with the U.S. Energy Information

Administration's projection of a 300,000-bpd rise. Total Permian

output hit 6.3 million bpd last year, accounting for about half

of total U.S. output.

"We still expect to see growth in the Permian but we

expect to see that moderated versus the rate of growth we have

seen before," Barbara Harrison, vice president of crude supply

and trading at Chevron ( CVX ) told Reuters on the sidelines of

the conference.

Chevron's ( CVX ) Permian production grew 14% year-over-year,

the company reported in its

Q4 earnings

, to a record 992,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day

(boepd), bringing the company close to its 1 million-boepd

target.

"We are predicting closer to 9-10% over the next couple

of years, continuing to grow our production there but not

necessarily at the same rate that we have done in the past,"

Harrison said.

Chevron ( CVX ) CEO Mike Wirth said he believes Permian

operators will keep capital spending modest and grow within

their means, unlike the 2010s shale boom when their focus was to

pump more.

"Drill, baby, drill is not going to happen," Shannon

Flowers, director of crude and water marketing at Coterra Energy ( CTRA )

said on the sidelines of the Argus Global Crude Summit

in Houston.

"The tension that we have right now is that the Trump

administration said it wants lower energy prices. That's not

necessarily good for producers," Flowers added.

U.S. refiner Delek's CEO Avigal Soreq concurred.

Producers are focusing on keeping capital spending under

control and achieving higher prices for their oil and gas. They

have prioritized returning cash to shareholders after a pricing

rout in the last decade hurt profits and share prices.

While the U.S. is already the world's top oil producer with

output of about 13.2 million bpd in 2024, total U.S. production

growth has slowed in recent years, climbing only about 280,000

bpd last year.