*

China buys no soybeans from autumn US harvest

*

Trade war makes US soy too costly for China buyers

*

Alternative export markets are small in comparison

By Tom Polansek

WATERMAN, Illinois, Oct 3 (Reuters) - A trade mission to

Nigeria. A memorandum of understanding with Vietnam. A surge of

purchases from Bangladesh.

These countries are not typically major customers for

soybeans from the U.S. farm belt. But desperate farmers, their

trade organizations and President Donald Trump's administration

are turning to far corners of the world in hopes of averting a

disaster for agriculture from a trade war that has kept China

from purchasing U.S. supplies.

The efforts so far are failing to offset the loss of the

country's biggest customer for the crop, data and interviews

show, with financial pain extending to tractor makers and other

agricultural businesses.

For the first time in more than 20 years, Chinese importers

have not yet bought soybeans from the autumn U.S. harvest,

forcing farmers to store their crops on hopes that prices will

eventually rise from around a five-year low. It is a risk that

delays their ability to bring in money from crop sales at a time

when they face rising costs for everything from labor and energy

to fertilizer.

In a sign that hard times are expected to continue in rural

America, Trump has promised to give proceeds from tariff

revenues to farmers, who largely supported his campaigns for

president.

On Thursday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the

government would make an announcement on Tuesday about support

for farmers.

Tit-for-tat tariffs that Washington and Beijing imposed on each

other's goods this year have made U.S. soybeans too expensive

for Chinese buyers, leading importers to buy from South America

instead.

But alternative markets for U.S. exports are tiny by comparison

and have not replaced China, long the world's biggest importer

by far.

CRISIS ACUTE FOR ILLINOIS SOYBEAN FARMERS

The crisis is particularly acute in Illinois, the largest

U.S. soybean producing and exporting state.

About 60 miles (97 km) west of Chicago, where the city and

suburbs start to give way to green fields, farmer Ryan Frieders,

49, will be storing much of his beans in bins after previously

selling some of his expected harvest at prices below the cost of

production.

After months of work that included planting seeds,

fertilizing fields and spraying weedkillers, Illinois growers

are facing losses of up to $8 per acre thanks to low crop prices

and weak exports, according to University of Illinois estimates.

U.S. soybean exports to China dropped 39% by volume to 5.9

million metric tons from January to July, before the autumn

harvest began, the latest government data show. By value,

shipments sank 51% to $2.5 billion, robbing farmers of billions

of dollars' worth of business.

The U.S. made a big increase in exports to Bangladesh at

just over 400,000 tonnes, a fraction of China's typical demand.

Despite rising shipments to Vietnam, Egypt, Thailand and

Malaysia, total U.S. soybean exports were down 8% by volume from

the same period a year ago to 18.9 million tonnes.

Along with industry officials, Frieders, who farms in Waterman,

Illinois, traveled to Turkey and Saudi Arabia in February to

meet with buyers and visit processors on a trip sponsored by the

U.S. Soybean Export Council trade group.

"There's talk about India and expanding there, and

Southeast Asia, and North Africa: those are markets of the

future," said Frieders, adding, "there isn't this lost market

that we haven't looked at that could just suddenly explode and

be a new China."

SOY INDUSTRY SEEKS TO IMPROVE TRADE

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on social media

in September that Taiwan committed to $10 billion in U.S.

agriculture purchases over the next four years, including

soybeans. She called the commitment a "game-changer," but it was

misleading: such a commitment would not represent an increase.

The U.S. exported $3.8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural

products to Taiwan in 2024, according to U.S. data. If that same

pace of sales continued over four years, it would total $15

billion.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture did not respond to a

request for comment about Rollins' statement.

Industry groups have also tried to boost U.S. exports.

During a trade mission in June, co-sponsored by the U.S.

Soybean Export Council, Vietnam's agriculture minister signed

memorandums of understanding to buy more than $1.4 billion in

U.S. farm products, including soybeans, the council said.

The council also met with Nigerian importers and soybean

processors in June to promote trade, hoping to build off a

modest 64,000 metric tons shipped there last year, according to

the U.S. Mission in Nigeria. In August, the U.S. Mission in

Nigeria said it also joined the American Soybean Association at

a graduation ceremony involving aquaculture, an industry that

can use soy as fish food.

Through July, though, the U.S. had not exported any soybeans

to Nigeria this year, according to U.S. data.

Illinois hosted agricultural buyers from Peru, Colombia,

Nicaragua, El Salvador, Mexico and the Dominican Republic on an

annual tour of farms and crop handling facilities in August.

The U.S. did not export soy to Peru through July, while

Nicaragua and El Salvador bought a negligible amount, U.S. data

show. Exports were largely flat to Mexico and down to the

Dominican Republic.

Farmers hope the efforts pay dividends over the longer term,

though they are struggling now.

CHINA DOMINATES GLOBAL SOY IMPORTS

With more than 1.4 billion people and the world's biggest

hog herd, China is hard to replace as a soybean buyer. It has

imported an average of 61% of the world's traded soybean

supplies over the past five years, more than the rest of the

world combined, according to the American Soybean Association.

In 2024, the U.S. exported nearly 27 million metric tons of

soybeans to China and 5 million metric tons to Mexico, the

second biggest buyer.

"The Soybean Farmers of our Country are being hurt because

China is, for 'negotiating' reasons only, not buying," Trump

wrote on Truth Social on Wednesday. He said soybeans would be a

major topic of discussion when he meets with Chinese President

Xi Jinping in four weeks.

China's business is now going to South America, as it did

during Trump's last trade war.

Last month, U.S. soybeans were about 80 cents to 90 cents a

bushel cheaper than Brazilian soybeans for shipment in September

or October, but China's 23% tariff on U.S. shipments added $2 a

bushel to the cost for importers, traders have said.

In Argentina, the government of President Javier Milei briefly

suspended export taxes on soybeans in September, luring Chinese

buyers who swiftly booked cargoes, traders said.

The deals infuriated U.S. farmers shut out of China as Bessent

said Washington was negotiating to support Milei, a Trump ally,

financially with a $20 billion swap line for Argentina.

"The frustration is overwhelming," said Caleb Ragland, 39, a

Kentucky farmer and president of the American Soybean

Association.

CHINA'S ABSENCE IN THE MARKET SPILLS OVER TO OTHERS

The decline in income from crop production has spilled over

into other facets of rural America.

Equipment manufacturer CNH, which sells tractors and

combines, said net sales in its agriculture business dropped 20%

in the six months ending on June 30, compared to the previous

year.

"The good news only comes when China actually starts to

order," CNH CEO Gerrit Marx said in an August interview at the

Farm Progress Show in Decatur, Illinois.

Decatur, home to Archer-Daniels-Midland's ( ADM ) North

American headquarters, was formerly known as the soy capital of

the world because of its processing industry, Mayor Julie Moore

Wolfe said.

At the Farm Progress Show, when asked where the new soy

capital was, the mayor dropped her voice to a whisper.

"It might be Brazil," she said.