07:31 AM EST, 02/24/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The direction of United States protectionism will be the main driver beyond the short term, said ING.

Markets should see the discussion on Mexico and Canada tariffs trade return to center stage as the deadline for the delayed tariffs is a week away, noted the bank.

Canada is already disproportionately affected by U.S. metals tariffs and ING's working assumption is that President Donald Trump won't go ahead with 25% tariffs on his neighbors.

However, a series of hawkish comments from Trump followed by a last-minute deal would be a familiar script, and the bank sees downside risks for the Canadian dollar and Mexico's peso before any reassurance on tariffs arrives.