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US-China trade deal is 'done,' Trump says
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Markets guarded, await more details
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Chinese equities rise, US stocks edge up
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Investors hope for robust deal, but prepare for more
uncertainty
(Updates paragraphs 1-5,7-9 with details of trade talks and
comments; updates prices throughout)
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and Ankur Banerjee
NEW YORK/SINGAPORE, June 11 (Reuters) - The latest trade
truce between China and the United States offers investors hope
that the two superpowers can reach a lasting resolution and
prevent further market disruption, but the absence of detailed
terms leaves room for potential future tariff conflicts.
President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the U.S. deal
with China is done, with Beijing to supply magnets and rare
earth minerals while Washington will allow Chinese students in
U.S. colleges and universities.
China's Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang said on
Tuesday that the Chinese and U.S. negotiating teams had agreed a
framework on trade after two days of talks, and would take that
back to their leaders.
A White House official said the agreement allows the
U.S. to charge a 55% tariff on imported Chinese goods.
Wall Street stocks edged down, while the dollar slipped.
Chinese stocks inched up to near three-week
highs.
The guarded reaction from currency and stock investors
showed that while the meeting ended in a truce, markets had
hoped for more. The lack of details means uncertainty is likely
to remain high.
"The details are scarce, and both sides are claiming that
their needs were satisfied ... but this issue is not close to
being settled," Chris Grisanti, MAI Capital Management's chief
market strategist, said.
The main positive takeaway was the talks indicated
pragmatism on both sides, analysts said. While the outcome of
the talks supported riskier assets, investors appeared to remain
vigilant.
"The devil is in the details... The other big piece of news
is the U.S. and China seem to have a framework for further
discussions, and that contradicts a statement of 'it's a done
deal'," said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at
Wealthspire Advisors, in New York.
With most negotiations incomplete as Trump's July 8
deadline for a 90-day pause on tariffs on other U.S. trading
partners approaches, investors remain watchful.
Markets plunged after Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff
announcement on April 2 as investors worried about an impending
recession, but those fears eased as Trump rolled back most of
the punitive tariffs.
The benchmark S&P 500 index has risen more than 20%
from its April lows, and is close to reclaiming a record high.
Chinese stocks have underperformed as investors fret over a
persistently weak economy, but have nonetheless recouped losses
to return to the April 2 level.
TARIFF REPRIEVE
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the latest plan
to ink a deal put "meat on the bones" of an agreement reached
last month in Geneva to ease bilateral retaliatory tariffs that
had reached crushing triple-digit levels.
While this might remove some of the extreme gloom scenarios
for markets, investors would need more concrete steps to fully
rejoice.
The broad impact of the duties in a trade war that could
bring $600 billion in two-way trade to a standstill is being
felt in both economies. Economists say the damage from the
tit-for-tat duties and volatility in financial markets would be
an overhang on the global economy for months.
Phillip Wool, chief research officer and lead portfolio
manager at Rayliant Global Advisors, said investors bidding
stocks back to record highs were significantly underestimating
the damage already caused by uncertainty this year.
"I'm feeling more cautious and opportunistic than
unconditionally bullish at this moment," he said. "If any major
deal is reached, we could see stocks rally in response, but my
sense is that's more emotion at this point, and the euphoria
could be short-lived as new risks materialize."
China's economy needs a reprieve from tariffs that have hit
its exports as the country battles deep deflationary pressures
and weak consumption.
The ultimate trade war impact on U.S. inflation and the jobs
market remains to be seen, but tariffs have hammered U.S.
business and household confidence.
That has pushed the dollar down more than 8% against other
major currencies this year, as investors worry about the U.S.
economy and fiscal health. A Republican bill to cut taxes and
spend more has exacerbated worries about U.S. debt.
Other challenges facing Trump further raise the stakes for a
successful negotiation with China. They include a spectacular
fallout with the world's richest person, Elon Musk, intense
scrutiny of his tax bill and street protests in Los Angeles over
his administration's immigration policy.