02:59 PM EST, 12/09/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Vail Resorts ( MTN ) has experienced a boost in pass sales ahead of the Dec. 2 deadline, with sentiment improving despite early concerns, UBS Securities said in an earnings preview emailed Monday.

However, UBS expects a year-over-year decline in pass unit sales by the end of December, marking the first such drop since the launch of its Epic pass in 2008.

The firm forecasts a 3% decline in pass sales by the end of December, with Q1 resort revenue expected to come in slightly lower than anticipated, primarily due to soft visitation, especially from a challenging Australian ski season.

The brokerage's fiscal 2025 resort revenue estimate of $2.93 billion is up 2% year-over-year, but slightly below Wall Street's estimate of $2.99 billion. This estimate is also below the company's guidance of $3.03 billion.

UBS anticipates fiscal 2025 overall visitation to be 17.4 million, down 1% from last year, lower than the Street's estimate of 18 million, which reflects a 3% year-over-year increase.

For Q1, UBS estimates resort revenue of $247 million, down 3% year-over-year, slightly below the Street's estimate of $249 million. The firm expects Q1 visitation to be 599,000, a 9% year-over-year drop.

UBS noted that the challenging ski season in Australia, including the early closure of all three Australian resorts due to record-low snowfall, has already been factored into expectations.

UBS has a neutral rating on Vail Resorts' ( MTN ) stock with a price target of $185.

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