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Wall Street greets Trump's return with greed and trepidation
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Wall Street greets Trump's return with greed and trepidation
Nov 9, 2024 11:58 AM

*

Deregulation, lower taxes, softer antitrust stance

expected

*

Some bankers told to get the ball rolling on deals

*

Trade tariffs, national debt and potential for chaotic

policy

are concerns

By Milana Vinn, Echo Wang and Nupur Anand

NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Wall Street executives by

and large are looking forward to business-friendly regulations

as they analyze the implications of a second Donald Trump

presidency, while some bankers were immediately tasked with

discussing potential deals.

Trump's return to power is likely to significantly ease some

of the regulatory pressures industries have seen under the Biden

administration, executives across banks and private equity said.

Smaller government, broad deregulation as well as tax breaks

for corporations and the wealthy are widely expected. In

particular, a softer stance on antitrust and less regulation in

areas such as banking and cryptocurrencies could boost corporate

profits and spur deal flow, they said.

"He is pro-business and anti-regulation," said Euan Rellie,

co-founder and managing partner of investment bank BDA Partners.

"His instincts are to cut taxes. All of that will help the M&A

market."

"So long as he governs with moderation and not with chaos,

the markets will welcome him," said Rellie.

That, some of the executives said, however, was not a given,

and tempered the optimism.

Some bankers worried about how to navigate unpredictable

shifts in government policy, the impact of trade tariffs, a

potentially perilous fiscal path that adds trillions of dollars

to the national debt as well as about the potential tightening

of visa programmes.

For now, though, the reaction was euphoric. As U.S. stocks

rallied sharply, one equity capital markets banker who declined

to be named said his colleagues had got fresh mandates Wednesday

morning as well as an opportunity to pitch for an initial public

offering. The message was, "let's get the ball rolling," the

banker said.

An investment banker who works at a global firm in New

York also said that his firm had an internal call to discuss

deals, including possibly revisiting some transactions that may

have not passed regulatory scrutiny under Lina Khan's Federal

Trade Commission in the Biden administration.

MORE BUSINESS

A more lenient approach to antitrust issues could boost

dealmaking in many sectors. Two sources with knowledge of the

media industry said the sector was in for a period of

consolidation over the next two years.

Greg Hertrich, head of U.S. depository strategies at Nomura,

said the banking industry could see more mergers, too. "The

current number of 4,700 banks in the U.S. may be reduced to

around 2,500 faster," he said.

Large financial deals will have more chance of being

greenlighted. Shares of payments firms Capital One and

Discover Financial Services ( DFS ), awaiting approval of a

$35.3 billion deal, surged.

"It is expected that the Trump administration will be more

open to sensible M&As than many believe has been the case under

the Biden administration," said Gene Ludwig, a former top bank

regulator who now advises financial institutions as CEO of

Ludwig Advisors.

For banks, one of the biggest questions now is how stringent

new Basel capital standards are going to be.

Ed Mills, an analyst at Raymond James, said the turnover of

regulators as the new administration comes in will "stall the

bank regulatory super cycle that has existed over the last

couple of years."

"We are unlikely to see any major bank regulation come out

and all of this paints a very favorable picture for the banks,"

said Mills.

MANY WORRIES

Not everyone was celebrating, however. A lawyer who works

with renewable energy companies said he'd been on the phone with

despondent clients all day. They were all trying to reach local

Republican politicians in districts where they have planned

projects, seeking assurances that tax credits and incentives

under Biden's push for green energy would continue.

At one Wall Street firm, a meeting included conversation

about the risk of deficits rising under a Trump administration,

one source said. One estimate sees his policies adding $7.5

trillion to deficits over 10 years.

The hope among the participants was Trump's aides would

encourage him not to go to extremes with tariffs and tax cuts,

said the source.

Other concerns hit more on a personal level, such as

safeguarding non-U.S. staff. In Trump's first term, he took

steps to tighten access to some visa programs, including a

suspension of many work visas during the COVID pandemic.

A private equity investor in New York said one issue that

came up on Wednesday was questions from international employees

on H-1B visas about whether they would face difficulties

renewing their visas and how their employer could support them.

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