* Ex-Airbus CEO says deftech to echo SpaceX impact on

launchers

* Defence companies make up increasing share of show's

attendees

* Ukraine, Gulf conflicts draw interest in high-tech weapons

* Commercial jet order interest expected to be fairly muted

By Tim Hepher, Cassell Bryan-Low and Joanna Plucinska

FARNBOROUGH, England, July 17 (Reuters) - Spiralling

security risks are expected to push defence to the forefront of

Britain's Farnborough Airshow, as aerospace and arms makers

struggle to keep pace with demand for weapons while cementing a

fragile recovery in civil jet and engine production.

With the Ukraine war in its fifth year and a ceasefire in

tatters in the Gulf, those risks are also likely to move the

ritual contest between Boeing ( BA ) and Airbus for

jetliner orders down the pecking order at the July 20 to 24

show.

"The global security environment is arguably more complex

and volatile today than we have seen in many, many decades, and

we are watching security threats evolve at a breakneck pace,"

Air Chief Marshal Harv Smyth, head of the Royal Air Force, told

an International Air Chiefs Conference ahead of the show.

Weapons makers enter their biennial bazaar witnessing the

biggest rise in European defence spending since the Cold War but

with unresolved questions about where and how it will be spent.

One of the industry's most influential figures warned the shift

to drones and AI systemscould disrupt defence as much as SpaceX

transformed the launch business, aswars in Ukraine and Iran

expose the need for faster developments and mass production.

"I know both worlds and they couldn't be further apart," said

ex-Airbus CEO Tom Enders, who is co-chairman of German defence

startup Helsing and heads foreign policy think tank DGAP.

"We used to have a saying that traditional defence companies ...

would only pick up a pen if the government paid for it," he said

in an interview on the eve of the show.

"The younger companies are aggressive, not risk-averse. They

spend their own money. Procurement agencies and armed forces

increasingly understand that this is the way for a dynamic

fast-moving industry," said Enders, who also chairs tank maker

KNDS.

While some new budgeted funds will be spent on today's

warplanes like the Lockheed Martin F-35 and the

Eurofighter - both performing displays next week - startups like

Helsing and U.S.-based Anduril are pushing AI-driven systems

like uncrewed fighter cohorts, despite initial setbacks.

"Valuations are tilting in favour of the defence entrants

but...most militaries are still spending the vast amount of

their resources on manned platforms," said Byron Callan,

managing partner of research firm Capital Alpha.

Organisers said defence will represent half of the record

1,600 exhibitors at the show, up from 40% historically, with a

sharp increase in AI, deep-tech and finance companies.

COMMERCIAL JET SALES, SUPPLY CHAINS

On the commercial side, Airbus and Boeing ( BA ) are expected to

announce new orders and disclose customers behind previously

booked deals.

But with delivery slots largely sold out well into the next

decade, the usual scrum of media announcements is likely to

attract less attention as investors focus instead on aircraft

deliveries, where manufacturers generate most profits.

Air shows can still produce surprises, but industry sources

said total deals may struggle to climb far above 300 aircraft,

well below some pre-show forecasts of as many as 800 jets. The

tally could also include deals that have already been announced.

Separately, Air China said it would order 55 Airbus jets.

"Winning orders is not the question. It's not the relevant

measuring stick that it used to be because of production

capacity constraints," said Jerrold Lundquist, managing director

of advisory firm The Lundquist Group.

Aerospace has been wrestling with supply problems since

COVID-19, especially for castings and forgings - critical parts

made to exacting standards from molten or solid metal.

Fixing such issues is key to a repeatedly delayed target by

Airbus to lift single-aisle jet output by about 25% to 75 a

month in 2027. Boeing ( BA ), looking to narrow a gap against its rival

and put a floor under declining market share, has signalled it

is studying production above currently targeted levels.

"The supply chain...has improved relative to where it was a

year or two ago but (not) to the point where Airbus can pursue

its goal of 75," said manufacturing expert Kevin Michaels,

managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory.

"And as Boeing ( BA ) raises rates, it's surely going to cause

issues there as well," he added.

Delays in engines and interiors have also been among the most

persistent supply-chain headaches. But the show will open on a

more positive note from the world's largest engine maker.

"I do think the supply chain has really turned the corner," GE

Aerospace CEO Larry Culp told Reuters. "(There is) more

work to do."