May 16 (Reuters) -
More than half of the oil sands production from Canada could
be impacted if the wildfires in Alberta and British Columbia
worsen, Rystad Energy said in a report on Thursday.
WHY IT'S IMPORTANT
Canada is one of the biggest oil sands producers in the
world.
Companies like Suncor Energy ( SU ), Canadian Natural
Resources ( CNQ ) and Imperial Oil ( IMO ) have oil sands
projects within 150 km of Fort McMurry, an oil sands hub in
Northern Alberta, with many workers living in the city.
In 2016, a huge wildfire shut in over 1 million bpd of
output in Fort McMurry.
CONTEXT
Canada's oil sands industry produces roughly 3.3 million
barrels per day of crude, two-thirds of the country's total
energy output.
Last year, more than 200,000 bpd of oil output was shut in
due to the fires. There are currently 43 active fires in
Alberta.
Wildfire season typically runs from April until September or
October, when cooler temperatures and rain help dampen fire
activity in Canada.
BY THE NUMBERS
May is seasonally the maintenance season for the oil
industry as it gets ready to ramp up production for the
higher-demand summer driving season in North America, with an
estimated 365,000 bpd going offline.
Excluding that, Rystad Energy estimates more than 2.1
million barrels per day (bpd) of oil sand output could be
impacted in a worst-case scenario, or 2.6% of global crude and
lease condensate production.
This comes up to around 52% of affected volumes of the
synthetic crude produced from Canadian facilities, when
accounting for maintenance impacts, or closer to 60% when
excluding it.
KEY QUOTE
"The current flora around Fort McMurray is still recovering
from the events that took place eight years ago, thus, MFW-017
(the current out-of-control blaze) is spreading on the ground at
a slower pace," said Thomas Liles, vice president of upstream
research at Rystad Energy.