TL;DR

Experts warn of a possible “sell-the-news” drop after the Fed’s projected rate cut, with scenarios pointing to a dip below $100K. At the same time, BTC exchange reserves hit an eight-year low, and the assets MVRV ratio stays in a healthy range, suggesting limited immediate selling pressure and more room for growth before hitting cycle tops.

Bulls, Hold the Champagne

September 17 is a long-awaited and important date for the crypto community because later today, the Federal Reserve will most likely lower the interest rates in the United States. Numerous analysts and market observers have previously described the event as a major catalyst for the entire digital asset market.

After all, decreasing the benchmark will make money-borrowing cheaper, which will potentially push some investors toward riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. This could drive prices up, and many believe Bitcoin (BTC) will be among the biggest gainers. 

In theory, this is the long-term perspective, but in the short run, there might be some complications. Some experts have recently warned that the upcoming FOMC meeting could result in a sell-the-news scenario.

The X user Ted, for instance, outlined two possible outcomes. The first one includes a dump to $104,000 before reversal, while the second one is a plunge to $92,000 and later a resurgence to a new all-time high.

The phenomenon resembles the price decline of a particular asset immediately after good news is officially announced. This happens because many investors have already bought in anticipation of the event, and after the disclosure, some take profits, thereby creating immense selling pressure. That said, people should stay alert today and perhaps avoid trading with high leverage.

The second bearish factor for BTCs short-term price performance is the recent activity of the miners. The popular X user Ali Martinez revealed that those market participants offloaded over 2,000 BTC in the past 72 hours alone. Developments of this type increase the circulating supply of BTC, which could be followed by a pullback if demand doesnt pick up.

Some Optimistic Factors

Despite the aforementioned elements that may briefly put the brakes on BTCs rally, others suggest that the bull run is far from being over.

CryptoQuants data shows that the amount of BTC stored on crypto exchanges continues to decline, reaching a fresh eight-year low today. This signals that many investors have shifted from centralized platforms toward self-custody methods, which reduces the immediate selling pressure.

The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) also supports the bullish thesis. The ratio of the metric (which indicates whether BTC is high or low compared to what most people bought it for) has been hovering in the healthy range of 2-2.25 in the past month. According to CryptoQuant, values above 3.7 indicate price tops, meaning the asset might have more room for growth during this cycle.

BTC MVRV, Source: CryptoQuant