TL;DR

ADA is down by double digits in the last 14 days, but analysts believe the price may soon surpass the $1 target. Grayscale recently updated its spot ADA ETF filing. The approval odds for that product before the end of the year currently stand at 87%.

The Necessary Catalyst

Earlier today, the popular X user Ali Martinez forecasted that ADA could hit $1.20 if it breaks $0.88. He thinks such a price expansion is possible in the following weeks. Less than a month ago, he presented a similar theory, envisioning a pump to $1.30 in case of a breakout above $0.84. 

The X user with the moniker LSTRADER is also among the bulls. They believe ADA could soar to $1 and beyond if the price doesnt lose the support zone of $0.82-$0.83. 

On the other hand, Dan Gambardello (who is known as a keen advocate of the asset) made a somewhat controversial statement. He doubled down on his previous opinion from January when saying the Cardano Foundation has failed the Cardano ecosystem due to not launching stablecoins and its lack of support for native tokens. 

Im glad most of Cardano are starting to realize how unproductive and useless Cardano Foundation has actually been. So many chains getting deals done with government and enterprise, and CF has accomplished nothing. Not even Chainlink integration. Just need to point this out, his latest statement reads.

On the other hand, Gambardello said he remains very bullish on Cardano.

ADA ETF Knocking on the Door?

Another major catalyst that could give the token a price boost is the potential approval of the first spot ADA exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US. The company willing to launch such an investment vehicle is Grayscale, and recently, there have been some developments surrounding that initiative.

Just a few days ago, the entity updated its application by submitting S-1 forms for a spot ADA ETF and a spot DOT ETF. S-1s provide detailed information about the structure of the products, how they operate and track the underlying assets, who the custodians are, the associated risks, and more.

As of this writing, the chances of a spot ADA ETF receiving a green light before the end of 2025 stand at 87% a sharp rebound from less than 60% less than a month ago.

ADA ETF Approval Odds, Source: Polymarket