Bitcoin (BTC) declined modestly on Friday, as its rally lost steam as enthusiasm about lower US borrowing costs tapered off.

New data suggest that the crypto asset may be approaching a cycle top.

BTC Rally Nearing Its Breaking Point

According to the latest analysis from crypto trader CasiTrades, Bitcoin has reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at around $117,900, which she described as a textbook target for a potential Wave 2 pivot. This level, she argued, is one of the most common bearish turning points in a market cycle.

CasiTrades revealed that several technical patterns are converging at this point, including the completion of a larger Wave 2 ABC pattern and the alignment of five clear subwaves within the C wave, all targeting the same retracement zone. She added that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flashing multiple bearish divergences up to the four-hour chart, which indicates that momentum may be weakening.

A decisive move below $113,000 would serve as confirmation of a downward trend, and potential downside targets stand near $96,000 or even $90,000. For now, the analyst believes the recent $118,000 high may represent the long-awaited market top, unless Bitcoin manages to invalidate the bearish setup by breaking RSI resistance and pushing to new all-time highs.

We are getting all the classic signs that the market is topping here.

Fears of Deeper Correction

On September 19, Michigans Bitcoin Reserve Bill (HB 4087) advanced through its second reading in the state House before moving to the Government Operations Committee. While the proposal, which would allow up to 10% of state funds to be allocated into crypto, could set the stage for broader institutional entry, its near-term effect remains limited.

In fact, the bigger risk lies in political resistance. In a statement to CryptoPotato, Bitunix Analysts warned that any pushback could spark sharp, liquidation-driven pullbacks in Bitcoin.

BTC risks facing $113,000 as the first downside level, followed by $111,000 and $108,000. A breakdown below these supports could intensify selling pressure and open the door to deeper declines, and end up overshadowing optimism tied to the bill.

Similar warnings have been made by different market watchers. Ali Martinez, for one, had previously stated that a breakdown below the $115,440 threshold could trigger sharper corrections and even expose the market to declines toward $93,600. Holding above support, on the other hand, leaves room for upside targets near $137,300.