Prominent analyst Axel Adler Jr. is forecasting a potential surge to $168,000 for Bitcoin (BTC) by October 2025, even as the number one cryptocurrency’s march towards a new all-time high faces a critical test at the $110,000 resistance level.

His bullish projection is predicated on a 31% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), up from just 7% in April, which he believes signals a strong uptrend zone.

$168K by October

Adler shared the insight via a June 12 post on X, in which he pointed out that even though the current CAGR remained “well below historical peaks of 50–80%,” favorable fundamentals and continued futures market momentum could propel BTC to $168,000 by the start of Q4 2025.

However, hours later, he issued a cautionary note for the near term, citing a “soft reversal point” marked by decreasing open interest (OI) and positive funding rates.

“As long as funding remains positive but open interest is declining, you should expect a short-term correction or consolidation below $108K,” the market watcher warned.

Fellow analyst Michaël van de Poppe echoed the sentiment, pointing to BTC’s inability to break past $110,000:

“Couldnt break through the $110,000 area and therefore, we should have some correction,” the crypto enthusiast posted.

Still, he suggested that traders did not need to worry as long as BTC stayed above $106,000. Despite significant tailwinds, including positive progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations and favorable May CPI data reported on June 12, the asset got rejected near its May 22 all-time high of $111,814.

It tumbled by more than $3,00 from yesterdays peak, trading around $107,000 at press time, reflecting a 2% 24-hour dip. While showing some resilience with a 2.4% weekly gain and a 4.5% monthly increase, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently underperforming the broader digital asset market, which grew 6.7% over the past seven days.

Holder Dynamics and Retail Resurgence Shaping Market

Meanwhile, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley forecasted a shift in holder behavior once BTC clears $130,000, suggesting investors will choose to borrow against their holdings rather than sell.

Additionally, retail sentiment is on the rise. As of June 11, market intelligence platform Santiment reported a 2-to-1 ratio of positive to negative BTC-related posts on social media, the highest since U.S. President Donald Trump’s election over seven months ago. However, the current Fear and Greed Index reads 71, firmly putting it in “greed” territory, and raising concerns about a potential local top.

Still, recent data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant highlighted an unusual market duality: while long-term holders are pocketing up to $930 million in daily profits, they are simultaneously increasing their net positions, suggesting that institutional conviction remains strong.