Bitcoin’s current rally may only be warming up, with market watchers predicting a potential surge to $162,000 by mid-June, largely driven by short-term holders approaching a critical profit threshold.

According to Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for those who’ve held the cryptocurrency for a maximum of three months sits at 27%.

The Short-Term Holder Catalyst

In a May 26 post on X, the macro researcher noted that historically, this cohort begins selling when unrealized profits go beyond 40%, creating notable price resistance.

His analysis shows the indicator rising at 0.818 percentage points per day, suggesting it could cross the 40% mark around June 11, 2025, at which point BTC could hit $162,000, barring unexpected macro disruptions.

Adlers projection may have found some support from pseudonymous analyst Dr. Profit, who flagged a “rare and powerful” Golden Cross signal, which he claims has preceded major Bitcoin rallies in the last two years.

Noting an 87.8% historical accuracy rate on higher timeframes, he cited similar technical setups in October 2023 and October 2024, which triggered price increases of 170% and 173%, respectively.

With the latest signal flashing in May, Dr. Profit is maintaining a short-term range of $117,000 to $120,000, highlighting major price catalysts such as strong exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, which are absorbing new supply at nine times the mining rate, Strategy’s continued BTC accumulation, and a liquidity cluster at $113,000.

On-Chain Data Reinforcing Bullish Thesis

The flagship cryptocurrency’s recent on-chain behavior has also reinforced the bullish narrative. Per Santiment data, as of May 23, BTC’s Mean Dollar Age, which measures how long coins are held, had dropped from 441 to 429 days since mid-April. This suggests that dormant Bitcoin is moving again, something experts typically view as a hallmark of the early stages of a bull run.

Furthermore, figures from Glassnode indicate that while BTC recently hit an all-time high of $111,814 (ATH) on May 22, realized profit-taking remains subdued. Just $1 billion in profits were realized, an amount less than half of the volume seen when BTC first crossed $100,000.

Meanwhile, in the last 24 hours, the crypto asset has gained 2.3%, buoyed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s extension of the deadline for a 50% tariff on the EU, pushing its weekly rise to 6.7%.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s current price of $110,085 reflects a 16.3% climb over 30 days. And despite slipping 1.6% from its ATH, the king cryptocurrency’s market cap is holding firm at $2.18 trillion, cementing its position as the fifth-largest asset globally.