Ethereum (ETH) may be poised for a major breakout, but the trigger might not be what most investors expect.

According to EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson, ETH could hit $10,000 by the end of the current cycle, fueled not just by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) but by the anticipated greenlighting of staking within those products.

The Staking Catalyst

In a series of posts on X on July 13, Jackson argued that while the market believes the impact of the spot Ethereum ETF is already priced in, the true game-changer lies in the pending staking approval.

The analyst believes this transformation would trigger significant passive capital inflows from traditional finance (tradfi), provide institutions with a real yield going as high as 3.5%, and dramatically increase demand to stake ETH.

The resulting decrease in circulating supply would compound the cryptocurrency’s existing deflationary tokenomics, where the net ETH supply is shrinking post-Merge, creating a potential structural supply crunch and a revaluation of Ethereum’s status:

“Our analysis suggests the ETH network is underpriced. It generates real revenue,” the hedge fund manager noted. He further stressed that once staking approval comes in, the asset will cease to be just “digital oil,” but will instead become an “institutional-grade yield product.”

In such a scenario, he estimates ETH will reach $10,000 by the end of the current cycle and possibly even go past $15,000.

“Our base case? ETH hits $10K by end of this cycle,” he wrote.”Our bull case? $15K+ if L2 adoption and ETF inflows beat expectations on the new staking approval expected before October.”

Not Everyone Is a Believer

As expected, Jacksons bold prediction faced immediate pushback and necessary corrections. One X commentator pointed out Ethereum wouldnt be the first U.S.-listed staking crypto ETF. That honor goes to the REX-Osprey Solana (SOL) ETF, launched on the Cboe on July 2.

Offering about a 7.3% yield, the product is reported to have attracted $33 million in trading volume on its first day and at least $70 million in its first week.

Furthermore, there is skepticism about Ethereums technical foundation, with some critics labeling the network a hot mess dumpster fire burdened by legacy tech debt and comparing it unfavorably to newer platforms.

However, Jackson remains undeterred, outlining an ultra-bullish long-term vision in which ETH becomes the dominant transactional layer for crypto-commerce, a shift he thinks could take it to $1.5 million per token.

“If this conversion to ETH commerce truly happens (and I believe it will), then ETH goes to $1.5M over time.”

Nevertheless, the world’s second-largest crypto by market cap is rooted in its current reality, trading around $3,045 at the time of this writing. While the price reflects a modest 2% uptick in the last 24 hours, it represents a more respectable 19.5% gain in the past week.

The numbers are even more impressive over longer time frames, with ETH up 23.8% in two weeks and 86.7% across the last three months.