Over the past few months, analysts have made several predictions about when the altcoin season for this cycle will begin. Most of these predictions are based on the price performance of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

However clear the coast may appear to be, analysts at the market intelligence platform CryptoQuant think that the expectations of an altseason in this cycle may be wishful thinking.

Will The Altseason Come

According to a report by analyst Burak Kesmeci, altcoins are still behaving as if it were the winter season. Their poor performance has persisted regardless of bitcoin rallies and periodic price spikes. Even when BTC is enjoying a bull run, the bears have been in charge of altcoins.

For this narrative to change, Kesmeci said the 1-Year Cumulative Buy/Sell Quote Volume Difference for Altcoins (excluding ETH) needs to shift to a positive value. The metric flipped positive in December 2024, indicating a local top for altcoins while BTC rallied. However, it has been on a negative trend since then.

Currently, the 1-Year Cumulative Buy/Sell Quote Volume Difference for Altcoins (excluding ETH) stands at -$36 billion. The CryptoQuant analyst stated that the metric heading downhill indicates altcoin investors are missing in action – they are not trading their assets and have refrained from making any significant investments in altcoins.

The metric highlighted by Kesmeci confirms that while BTC consolidates around $104,000, altcoins are still falling short of expectations. Before altcoins can experience a sustained rally, this metric needs to return to the zero range and turn positive. Unless this happens, expecting a full-blown altseason or a fear of missing out (FOMO) among altcoin investors may be just wishful thinking.

Analysts Hold Onto Hope

While the crypto market awaits the rise of the 1-Year Cumulative Buy/Sell Quote Volume Difference for Altcoins metric, experts insist that there is still hope for altcoins.

Some say Ether’s next breakout could trigger an altseason, while others argue that several altseason indicators are aligning. Additionally, some analysts believe that all hope is not yet lost, as BTC still has another leg up (altcoin rallies have corresponded with BTC surges in this cycle).

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju thinks that only a select few will rally if an altseason happens in this cycle. This is because the dynamic of this bull season is different from past cycles.