Arthur Hayes isn’t sweating Bitcoin’s recent drop. Instead, he is eyeing two potential catalysts that could push it back up: the U.S. Federal Reserve or China’s central bank.

The BitMEX co-founder is arguing that if the U.S. doesn’t ease monetary policy, China’s yuan devaluation will drive capital into the number one cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin’s Fate Tied to Central Bank Moves

In a series of posts on X, Hayes declared that either the Fed or the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) will trigger the next crypto surge. According to him, the catalyst could be currency manipulation, capital flight, or monetary easing.

Citing past trends, the analyst claimed that a devaluation of the yuan often drives Chinese investors toward Bitcoin. “It worked in 2013, 2015, and can work in 2025,” he wrote, warning his followers not to dismiss China’s role in shaping crypto cycles. In both years, capital outflows from the Asian giant correlated with crypto rallies, and Hayes is betting on history to repeat itself.

Bybit CEO Ben Zhou also echoed this thesis, stating, “Whenever RMB drops, a lot of Chinese capital flows into BTC. Bullish for BTC.”

The yuan recently weakened past a key psychological threshold of 7.20 per dollar, its lowest point since late 2023. On April 8, PBOC set its daily fixing at 7.2038, a move Bloomberg described as easing its grip amid an intensifying trade war with the United States. This triggered a flurry of online commentary, with the Maelstrom Fund CIO dramatically amplifying the message: “CNY deval is on like Donkey Kong!”

However, other reactions were mixed. Some members of the crypto community questioned the scale of the effect, while others pointed to alternative safe havens like gold. Still, many echoed Hayes’ optimism. “Don’t sleep in China, fam,” one user wrote. “If it keeps dropping, Chinese investors might FOMO into Bitcoin like 2013 2015.”

Rollercoaster Week

BTC has endured quite a bit of volatility over the past few days. Last week, it swung from $81,500 to $88,500 before crashing hard to $74,000. The latest dip came when U.S. President Donald Trump escalated his trade war with China, threatening to slap an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports, pushing the total rate to over 100%.

Rumors of a 90-day delay on the imposition of the taxes sparked a brief price hike, but when they were quickly debunked, the news sent Bitcoin tumbling again. Hayes, however, didn’t flinch. Even as the cryptocurrency slid below his previously suggested support at $76,500, he doubled down, urging investors to buy the dip.

Currently, BTC is trading a few dollars short of $79,000, having gained 4.2% in the last 24 hours. Still, the uptick hasn’t been enough to overturn losses made across different periods, with the asset 8.1% in the red over the past month. While it also dipped 5.3% in seven days, its performance was slightly better than the broader crypto market which shed nearly 9% in that time.