Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya recently predicted that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 per coin by the end of this year, based on he trajectory of previous halving cycles.

The billionaire venture capitalist’s prediction blows past those of bank analysts at firms like Standard Chartered and Bernstein, who believe the halving will be a significant but more modest catalyst for price appreciation over the next 18 months.

How Bitcoin Performs After The Halving

In an episode of the All-In Podcast published on Friday, Palihapitiya reviewed Bitcoin’s historical price performance over specific time periods following each one of his historical halving events. For example, the asset’s price multiplied 7.8x within the 18 months following its third halving in May 2020.

The ‘halving’ is a function in Bitcoin’s software that cuts its supply inflation rate in half every 210,000 blocks – roughly once every four years. Theoretically, these events help create a supply shock for BTC that drives up the asset’s price.

Bitcoin’s fourth halving occurred on April 20 2024, reducing Bitcoin’s approximate daily issuance from 900 BTC to 450 BTC.

Using Bitcoin’s performance after its third halving as a model, Palihapitiya projects that Bitcoin will reach $497,977 by October 2025. When applying an average of Bitcoin’s price performance between its second and third halvings, that projected price rises to $1.14 million.

Where Will The Demand Come From?

To drive demand, the CEO highlighted an “increasing body of countries” that may be aiming to adopt a dual currency standard, much like El Salvador.

“They will look at their local currency, and then they will look at Bitcoin, and then they will say ‘both of these two things are needed’,” Palihapitiya explained.

“One when you’re transacting on a daily basis for random goods and services, and two, when you need to buy a permanent asset that needs to have residual value – you’ll use something like BTC,” he continued.

Should Bitcoin truly reach over $500,000 per coin, the investor believes Bitcoin will “completely replace” gold, and even begin to have transactional utility for hard assets.

Palihapitiya also acknowledged the significance of the newly launched Bitcoin ETFs, which have “commercialized Bitcoin,” and are allowing it to “cross the chasm.” Based on their powerful inflows this year, analysts at Standard Chartered have called for Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.