The release of the December CPI report triggered notable reactions across financial markets, especially in the cryptocurrency sector.

While headline inflation aligned with expectations, core inflation fell below forecasts on both monthly and annual bases, fueling optimism for risk-on assets like Bitcoin.

Binance Open Interest Spikes After CPI Data

Within two hours of the CPI release, Binance Open Interest (OI) sharply rose in response to the inflation data.

In fact, CryptoQuant’s latest findings revealed that Binances futures market recorded a 3.30% surge in OI, which represented nearly half a billion dollars in growth. Total OI on the platform reached $10.96 billion, depicting heightened investor confidence and a synchronized rally in both spot and derivatives markets.

CryptoQuant contributor Burakkesmeci noted that such alignment between spot price movements and futures activity is a hallmark of bullish momentum as it reflects increased risk appetite among market participants.

Meanwhile, the futures markets, as tracked by CME FedWatch, assigned a 30% probability of the Federal Reserve implementing an interest rate cut as early as March. Lower interest rates typically enhance the appeal of cryptocurrencies by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Market Optimism

The CPI report for December revealed that while headline inflation aligned with expectations, core inflation fell below forecasts on both monthly and annual bases. This dovish data boosted optimism across financial markets, which sparked speculation about potential monetary policy shifts.

This aligns with pre-release observations by Nansens Principal Research Analyst, Aurelie Barthere, who told CryptoPotato,

In the short term, US OIS rate markets are pricing in only one Fed rate cut over the next three years. This pricing appears too hawkish to me, given the current macroeconomic and inflation mix. I would not be surprised to see short-term relief in rates (lower rates) due to this pricing asymmetry.

As a result, Bitcoin briefly touched $100,000 for the first time in 2025, owing to favorable macroeconomic conditions boosted risk-on assets. Traditional markets, including stocks and gold, also registered gains.

Jag Kooner, Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex, had earlier commented on the interplay between macroeconomic data and crypto, noting,

Bitcoin’s correlation with the NASDAQ 100 is at a two-year high, making it sensitive to today’s CPI data. This is in line with our Q1 outlook of increasing macro dependence and tradfi correlation for Bitcoin. We expect Bitcoin and crypto price movements to act as a faster beta to the evolving macro backdrop and price in the amount of rate cuts we could see in 2025 much faster than other risk assets.