Bitcoin (BTC) is once again testing the nerves of traders worldwide, hovering just above $105,000 today as forecasts split the crypto community in half.

Will the king cryptocurrency explode to $175,000 this cycle, or nosedive to under $80,000 if fear grips the market?

The $175K Dream

On the bullish side, pseudonymous chart-watcher Egrag Crypto supercharged hopium this week, predicting a huge breakout in the next few months. According to the analyst, BTC’s historical cycle data suggests the asset is primed for a 102% surge, which would catapult it to $175,000 from its current levels.

The average of three major pumps this cycle is 102%, hitting $175K!” they tweeted, pointing to eerily similar patterns in previous bull markets.

The way Bitcoin shrugged off the effects of recent geopolitical upheavals has only bolstered Egrag’s bullish case. After Israel struck multiple Iranian nuclear and military assets, the cryptocurrency cratered, going from a daily high near $108,500 to just under $103,000, before clawing its way back to around $105,000 today.

Other optimists, like DeFiTracer, also highlighted similar war-driven dips in April and October 2024, when each was followed by 48% and 74% explosions upward. Dont let whales and news manipulate you, he wrote on X, suggesting June’s 4% dip is merely fuel for the next bump upward.

The Bear Trap

However, not everyone is buying the hype just yet. Seasoned analyst Ali Martinez has tempered the euphoria, warning that the market could be on the brink of a sharp correction if key levels don’t hold.

He backed his pessimism, pointing to whales offloading nearly 30,000 BTC in the past week as well as a weakening support floor around the hundred grand level. If this floor gives way, Martinez predicts a drop to as low as $78,500.

His sentiment was echoed by crypto strategist Michaël van de Poppe, who noted that BTC just failed to hold above $106,000, triggering a liquidity cascade southwards. “Two options,” he warned: A sub-$100,000 buying opportunity or a fresh rally if prices hold at around $102,500.

Market observer Axel Adler Jr. also weighed in, drawing attention to BTC’s OBV (On-Balance Volume), which is still stuck in the red near $100,000. According to him, it means that any bullish momentum could be paper-thin.