According to popular crypto analyst ‘CRYPTO₿IRB,’ the bull market will end in 50 days, which puts the peak around late October. He noted that the “cycle peak countdown” says that Bitcoin is 95% done, “as we bleed in typical Q3 shakeout.”

The prediction has been derived from previous bull market peaks and the number of days after the Bitcoin halving and the previous cycle low.

It is 1,017 days since the November 2022 low, and prior bull market peaks have been between 1,060 and 1,100 days from their cycle lows. “That places the target in late Oct. to mid-Nov. 2025.”

Bull run ends in 50 days.

Cycle Peak Countdown says BTC is 95% done (1,017 days in) as we bleed in typical Q3 shakeout.

Use this alpha playbook and retire rich.

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Is This Cycle Different?

The analyst added that the halving in April 2024 was 503 days ago, and historical peaks have come between 518 and 580 days post-halving.

“We’re 77% to 86% through that window. Basically, entering the hot zone,” he said.

After Bitcoin peaks, it always drops between 70% and 80% over 370 to 410 days, making a 2026 bear market a 100% historical probability.

The 2021 bull market, for example, saw Bitcoin retrace 24% in September before more than doubling in the two months that followed to an all-time high in November. Prices then collapsed fast, with the asset dropping 72% in the first half of the following year.

“Historically, Bitcoin finds a low in September of the post-halving year, and then bounces off of it into the market cycle top that occurs in Q4,” confirmed ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen.

Other analysts have looked at the fundamentals, suggesting that this market cycle is very different because it is being driven by institutional adoption, such as ETFs and corporate treasuries, rather than retail FOMO, and there is a pro-crypto government in the United States. Both of these were missing during the last bull market.

Additionally, liquidity is about to improve if the Federal Reserve cuts rates in two weeks, as it will become cheaper to borrow.

BTC Price Outlook

Bitcoin has been consolidating between $107,500 and $112,500 for a couple of weeks now. It has printed lower lows, but support is holding for the time being. A September correction similar to previous bull market years could send it back below six figures.

BTC was $112,200 at the time of writing as it recovered from a dip below $109,500 on Thursday. However, the chop is likely to continue throughout the weekend as markets seem immune to positive news developments at the moment.