Bitcoin posted a new all-time high above $124K earlier this month, but the momentum has quickly shifted to fragile. The market has been extremely choppy this week, briefly pushing the price below $109K. As investors anticipate a durable rally, seasonal headwinds, among other factors, have hindered the assets growth.

New data suggests that the current Bitcoin cycle is 93% finished, and the blow-off top is expected between late October and mid-November 2025.

Final Surge

Crypto analyst Cryptobirb has warned that Bitcoins current bull market may be approaching its final stages, after taking into consideration several factors such as historical patterns, halving cycles, and seasonality. All of these point to a potential peak within the next 60 days.

According to Cryptobirb, Bitcoin is already 93% through its current bull cycle, which started after the 2024 halving on April 19. The analyst references historical bull run durations and noted that past cycles lasted 350 days (2010-2011), 746 days (2011-2013), 1,068 days (2015-2017), and 1,061 days (2018-2021).

The current cycle has so far lasted 1,007 days, with projections indicating a peak could occur between 1,060-1,100 days, which places the anticipated top in late October to mid-November 2025.

Halving timing further validates this outlook. Cryptobirb pointed out that previous bull cycles following halvings typically reached their peaks roughly 366 to 548 days later. Based on the April 2024 halving, the target peak window is calculated between October 19 and November 20, 2025.

Looking at historical bear markets, the analyst warned that significant corrections tend to follow these peaks. Previous bear markets lasted roughly 370-410 days with average losses around 66%.

No Capitulation Risk

Seasonality also plays a role. Cryptobirb said that August and September have historically been weaker months for Bitcoin, while October and November often see the strongest performance. This also aligns with the projected peak window. Technical indicators support this timing.

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin sits above its 50-week and 200-week simple moving averages at $97,094 and $52,590, respectively.

On-chain data remains healthy. Mining costs near $97,124, and profitability ratios indicate no immediate capitulation risk. Non-Ultimate Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratios indicate the market is still stable, despite short-term corrections.

Institutional activity, particularly via ETFs, shows some short-term outflows, as evidenced by $194 million withdrawn in a single day on August 21, though overall positions remain substantial. Cryptobirb added that while these flows are worth monitoring, they are unlikely to derail the broader trend.

Key takeaway is this: Were 60 days away from Bitcoin’s historical blow-off window (Oct 15 Nov 15, 2025); last Oct week. ETFs record outflows, but cycle + halving math + seasonality all point to Q4 grand finale.