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Bitcoin outlook: Has the trend reversed, and what do experts expect?
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Bitcoin outlook: Has the trend reversed, and what do experts expect?
Feb 10, 2022 11:21 PM

Cryptocurrencies had a rough start this year. The world’s oldest cryptocurrency Bitcoin plummeted to a six-month low of $33,000 after testing fresh all-time highs of $69,000 just a couple of months previously, in November 2021. Experts were even predicting a crypto winter--a prolonged period of subdued prices. Fortunately, the tide seems to have turned for Bitcoin this week.

The legacy coin managed to surge past and mostly hold above the $44,000 mark this week. Experts believe this could mean a reversal in trend for the crypto after the precipitous fall towards the end of January. The trend reversal could have been triggered by the bullish sentiment of crypto whales and other long-term investors. Crypto whales are individuals or institutions that hold a significant amount of a particular cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin's moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), a key frontrunner of bullish phases in 2021 and prior, printed a fresh key crossover this week, a Cointelegraph report pointed out. As Cointelegraph reported, MACD is an indicator created by short and long-term moving averages (MA). Last week, the crypto’s relative strength index (RSI) had also flashed green, breaking out of a downtrend in place since November's all-time highs. However, most analysts expect $45,000 to be a key resistance and believe a break above that is crucial for a bullish reversal.

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According to data from Glassnode, the recent price correction and the resulting circumstances could prove profitable for long-term holders and whales accumulating Bitcoin. This is because there is a likelihood of a rapid price increase in the coming weeks.

Glassnode also noted that it had reached the fourth oversold point, and current values indicate that most transactions occurring now are from short-term holders. At present, the dormancy score (a gauge of the market's spending pattern) is at 2,00,000, which indicates a high probability of a bull run in the near future.

One example of a whale is MicroStrategy’s CEO Michael Sayer, who has doubled down on his bitcoin buying streak, purchasing 660 bitcoin (BTC) at the beginning of the month. This investment was worth about $25 million, bringing the company's total tally over 1,25,000 BTC, which is currently valued at over $5 billion.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Sayer talked about his aggressive BTC purchasing strategy, "If we are going to be more aggressive about buying BTC, then we will look at various financing options. Probably the most compelling and interesting option is to generate yield off the 1,10,000 BTC that is currently on pledge or to borrow against that 1,10,000 BTC and then reinvest that into more BTC," he said.

Also read: Explained: What are privacy coins, why has their adoption been slow?

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed index that was flashing red hinting at ‘extreme fear’ in the market, is also now suggesting a trend reversal. The index has been a reliable indicator of investor sentiment in the market for some time now. During the crypto market correction in January the index had dropped to 8 out of 100. It is now at 37. This is, in fact, the first time it has moved from the red zone of the index since December of 2021.

This score implies that short-term investors are starting to have a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. This is because, as the score increases, the probability of investors buying back bitcoins also increases.

There are also a few other factors that indicate that bitcoin might have resumed its uptrend.

Former Twitter CEO and Bitcoin maximalist Jack Dorsey recently discussed the possibility of a Bitcoin-powered universal basic income (UBI) strategy with US congressional candidate Aarika Rhodes.

Also read: Crypto crowdfunding: How Ukraine is building its defence to fight Russia

As reported by Cointelegraph, Dorsey pointed out lack of transparency within the financial system, saying, "Obscurity of information forces and incentivises people to negative (financial) behaviours that don't work for them, their community or family."

Adding, "If there's one thing to focus on it is Bitcoin -- the operations are transparent, the code is transparent, the policy is transparent."

JPMorgan strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in a note this week said bitcoin could reach a long-term price of $150,000. This is a little more than the $146,000 target they had in January last year.

Research firm FSInsight, in a note to investors, said Bitcoin could hit $200,000 in the second half of 2022.

The rally to Bitcoin’s $44,000 has added $170 billion to its market capitalisation. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around a percent higher at $44,013.

Also read: The Complete Guide To IC15 : India's First Cryptocurrency Index

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