Bitcoin is currently trading above $107,000, but analysts at the cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex say the asset is still far from “euphoric peaks.” Historical data cited by the analysts suggest the crypto market is in the middle of the bull phase and could peak in Q3 or Q4 2025, roughly 450 days after the April 2024 halving.

In a weekly report detailing expectations for bitcoin’s price in 2025, Bitfinex analysts said it could peak at $339,000 or $145,000 due to diminishing returns moderating the level of gains seen in previous cycles.

BTC Still Far From Euphoric Peaks

Bitcoin has rallied 573% from its bear market lows of $15,487 in November 2022 and 130% on a year-to-date basis. This bull market has been driven by strong institutional demand, spot accumulation, and consistent purchases by Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Spot ETFs are now considered a dominant force in the Bitcoin market. The products hold more than 1.13 million BTC and have a cumulative inflow of over $50 billion.

With institutional investors and the spot Bitcoin ETF market driving demand for BTC, analysts expect corrections in this bull cycle to remain relatively small. Data from previous cycles also show that BTC has recorded minimal corrections after entering price discovery post-halving. In 2017, the maximum decline during such phases was 33.2%, while the 2020 cycle was minimal at 27.1%.

“In the current bull cycle, which began in mid to late 2023, Bitcoinʼs corrections have been smaller, particularly since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. With institutional and ETF demand providing consistent buying pressure, we expect this trend to continue, keeping future corrections limited and potentially shorter in duration,” Bitfinex stated.

Optimistic Expectations for 2025

Although analysts have optimistic expectations for BTC in 2025, they have warned that the cryptocurrency may not see rallies as high as recorded in previous cycles. In 2021, BTC rose roughly 40% from its moving averages; however, the trend of diminishing returns could place the surge at 15-20% above the moving averages.

This translates to BTC peaking at $160,000 or $200,000 in mid-2025 or, in a less likely scenario, $290,000 by early 2026.