As it typically happens when expectations point in one direction, BTC tends to go toward the other.

This transpired in February 2025 as many market observers, as well as historical performances, hinted at substantial gains. That didnt come to fruition, though.

Worst February Since 14

There was a lot of hype for February 2025. Perhaps deservingly so as bitcoins price movements since 2013 had been highly bullish within the second month of the year. In fact, only on two occasions 2014 and 2020, the asset had charted losses.

Moreover, Februaries after a halving year, which was the 2025 one, brought double-digit gains (62% in 2013, 23% in 2017, and 37% in 2021).

So, the stage was set for another rally and perhaps a fresh all-time high above $110,000. After all, BTC had charted a 9.3% gain in January, according to CoinGlass data, and had neared the aforementioned level but never managed to break it.

However, BTC never actually managed to go beyond Januarys closing price, which was at around $102,500. It briefly managed to challenge it at the beginning of the month, but overall, it spent most of the month below $100,000. The landscape worsened in the last week of the month when it plummeted by double digits to a multi-month low of $78,000 amid Trumps escalating trade war.

It managed to recover some ground by Februarys closing time and ended the month at around $84,000. This still meant a substantial decline of 17.39% within the second month of the year, making it the worst February since 2014.

Bitcoin Monthly Returns. Source: CoinGlass

Whats Next in March?

March has been historically a controversial month for BTC. After a mindblowing rally of 173% in 2013, the month delivered declines for six out of the next seven, with the latest being in March 2020, when the entire world was struck by the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, the trend changed once again for the next four years as BTC saw gains of 29.84% in March 2021, 5.39% in 2022, 22.96% in 2023, and 16.81% last year.

The good news for March 2025 is that bitcoin doesnt have to register some big gains to end the month in the green, as it started after a severe correction in what is still considered a bull market. Still, history doesnt always rhyme as February 2025 proved.