TL;DR

Bitcoin trades sideways between $116.8K and $119.5K, with liquidity swept on both ends. Michaël van de Poppe expects a stronger move the longer BTC remains rangebound. CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin is in a neutral phase with no trend dominance yet. On-chain signals mirror 2020 patterns, hinting at a possible bull cycle end soon.

Price Holds in Narrow Band

Bitcoin (BTC) was priced at $118,300 at press time, down 0.2% over the week. For several weeks now, the asset has been moving in a tight zone without direction. Traders are showing caution ahead of today’s FOMC interest rate decision.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe described the current pattern as “extremely boring,” pointing to the lack of decision or momentum. Bitcoin has been holding between $116,800 and $119,500, with no clear move up or down.

His chart shows that liquidity above and below this range has already been cleared. That often happens before a strong price move. 

He added that a break above $119,500 could open the way for a test of previous highs. If the price drops instead, the $110,000 to $112,000 range may become a key area to watch for buying.

Extremely boring range for the past few weeks on #Bitcoin.

Still no breakout, still no decision.

The longer we stay in the range, the heavier the breakout will be. pic.twitter.com/WLIJaxFNHu

Market Shows No Clear Trend

Axel Adler Jr, an analyst at CryptoQuant, shared an update on Bitcoin’s broader market trend using a tool called the Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase. It currently stands at 44%.

Notably, this number reflects several market signals, including selling activity from long-term holders, ETF inflows, and overall demand. A higher number means the market is heating up. A lower one suggests a quiet phase, often seen before prices rise.

Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase provides a single scalar value that reflects the current temperature of the Bitcoin market:

High values (closer to 50%) mean that most components (overvaluation assessment, profit-taking activity, LTH selling pressure, and ETF inflows) are at upper… pic.twitter.com/TtBW0CiVjp

At 44%, Adler explained that the market is in between. 

“There is currently no pronounced dominance of either bulls or bears,” the analyst said. 

While some profit-taking is beginning, it’s still at a controlled pace.

Short-Term Cooling Continues

Another CryptoQuant analyst, known as Crypto Dan, noted a small cooling period after a brief wave of short-term activity. They looked at the amount of Bitcoin held for just one day to one week and said the numbers showed signs of short-term heat earlier this month.

Source: CryptoQuant Compared to the larger corrections seen in 2024 and early 2025, this phase appears smaller in both strength and length. The analyst also said the recent price increase was not large, which could limit how deep or long any correction might be.

Crypto Dan suggested that traders may need to wait through this cooling period before seeing the next upward trend.

Long-Term Wallet Activity Shows Familiar Pattern

On-chain analyst Joao Wedson pointed out that the number of Bitcoin wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC is falling again—just like it did during the 2020–2021 bull market. During that time, the price kept rising even as large holders reduced their positions.

“The same pattern is happening again,” Wedson said. 

He also mentioned that this may point to the final stretch of the current bull market cycle. 

“In my opinion, this signals that the BTC bull market has just a few weeks left.” he said

This pattern is being watched closely, especially as the market continues to move within a narrow range.