Analysts are sounding the alarm that Bitcoin’s current uptrend may be nearing a peak, not based on price action alone, but through a powerful on-chain metric: the Market Value to Realized Value, 365-day moving average (MVRV 365DMA).

According to a July 28 analysis shared by CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei_dent, the 2025 cycle resembles 2021’s “double-top camel” structure, where two peaks formed roughly six months apart before ushering in a painful bear market.

MVRV Flashing Caution

The MVRV 365DMA is a historically reliable indicator of market cycle tops. It measures the average profit or loss of holders over a one-year period. In 2021, it formed a dual-peak structure before Bitcoin entered an extended downtrend. Per Yonsei’s analysis, this year’s pattern is now mirroring that setup, with the first peak already in and a second one potentially materializing around September 10 if history repeats.

The market watcher warned traders that despite BTC pushing toward the $119,000 region, they should “tighten risk management and stay nimble,” as the MVRV is a lagging indicator, meaning Bitcoin’s actual price peak could arrive sooner, possibly in late August.

“We’re entering a zone where optimism and caution must coexist,” he wrote. “Let on-chain timing guide your strategy.”

His cautious outlook is in stark contrast with current market sentiment, which is largely bullish following a weekly candle close at $119,466. Fellow analyst Rekt Capital noted this break is a sign that there could be a potential breakout from a long-term bull flag pattern.

However, cracks are forming beneath the surface. As CryptoVizArt recently reported, a bearish divergence between price and the RSI could be undermining bullish momentum, and a liquidation cluster around $114,000 and $113,600 remains a mid-term downside risk.

Price Action Stays Strong

As of Monday, BTC is trading at $118,800 per CoinMarketCap, up 0.5% in 24 hours and 3.4% below its all-time high of $123,091, set on July 14. While the asset has gained 10.6% in the past month and 75% over the last year, its weekly change is flat at just 0.1%, signaling a likely pause in momentum.

The OG cryptocurrency ranged between $117,953 and $119,754 in the last 24 hours, and between $115,184 and $119,959 over the past week, showing it is still consolidating in a tight zone. With the MVRV ratio flashing red and macro catalysts like potential Fed rate cuts on the horizon, the next six weeks could define the fate of this market cycle if Yonsei_dent’s assessment is to be believed.